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Report 26: Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission

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2020-06-08-COVID19-Report-26.pdfPublished version13.7 MBAdobe PDFView/Open
Title: Report 26: Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission
Authors: Nouvellet, P
Bhatia, S
Cori, A
Ainslie, K
Baguelin, M
Bhatt, S
Boonyasiri, A
Brazeau, N
Cattarino, L
Cooper, L
Coupland, H
Cucunuba Perez, Z
Cuomo-Dannenburg, G
Dighe, A
Djaafara, A
Dorigatti, I
Eales, O
Van Elsland, S
Nscimento, F
Fitzjohn, R
Gaythorpe, K
Geidelberg, L
Grassly, N
Green, W
Hamlet, A
Hauck, K
Hinsley, W
Imai, N
Jeffrey, B
Knock, E
Laydon, D
Lees, J
Mangal, T
Mellan, T
Nedjati Gilani, G
Parag, K
Pons Salort, M
Ragonnet-Cronin, M
Riley, S
Unwin, H
Verity, R
Vollmer, M
Volz, E
Walker, P
Walters, C
Wang, H
Watson, O
Whittaker, C
Whittles, L
Xi, X
Ferguson, N
Donnelly, C
Item Type: Report
Abstract: In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, countries have sought to control transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by restricting population movement through social distancing interventions, reducing the number of contacts. Mobility data represent an important proxy measure of social distancing. Here, we develop a framework to infer the relationship between mobility and the key measure of population-level disease transmission, the reproduction number (R). The framework is applied to 53 countries with sustained SARS-CoV-2 transmission based on two distinct country-specific automated measures of human mobility, Apple and Google mobility data. For both datasets, the relationship between mobility and transmission was consistent within and across countries and explained more than 85% of the variance in the observed variation in transmissibility. We quantified country-specific mobility thresholds defined as the reduction in mobility necessary to expect a decline in new infections (R<1). While social contacts were sufficiently reduced in France, Spain and the United Kingdom to control COVID-19 as of the 10th of May, we find that enhanced control measures are still warranted for the majority of countries. We found encouraging early evidence of some decoupling of transmission and mobility in 10 countries, a key indicator of successful easing of social-distancing restrictions. Easing social-distancing restrictions should be considered very carefully, as small increases in contact rates are likely to risk resurgence even where COVID-19 is apparently under control. Overall, strong population-wide social-distancing measures are effective to control COVID-19; however gradual easing of restrictions must be accompanied by alternative interventions, such as efficient contacttracing, to ensure control.
Issue Date: 8-Jun-2020
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/79643
DOI: 10.25561/79643
Start Page: 1
End Page: 94
Copyright Statement: © 2020. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Sponsor/Funder: Medical Research Council (MRC)
Funder's Grant Number: MR/R015600/1
Keywords: COVID19
COVID-19
Transmissibility
Mobility
Publication Status: Published
Appears in Collections:Faculty of Medicine
School of Public Health
Grantham Institute for Climate Change
Imperial College London COVID-19