A novel Twitter sentiment analysis model with baseline correlation for financial market prediction with improved efficiency

Abstract

A novel social networks sentiment analysis model is proposed based on Twitter sentiment score (TSS) for real-time prediction of the future stock market price FTSE 100, as compared with conventional econometric models of investor sentiment based on closed-end fund discount (CEFD). The proposed TSS model features a new baseline correlation approach, which not only exhibits a decent prediction accuracy, but also reduces the computation burden and enables a fast decision making without the knowledge of historical data. Polynomial regression, classification modelling and lexicon-based sentiment analysis are performed using R. The obtained TSS predicts the future stock market trend in advance by 15 time samples (30 working hours) with an accuracy of 67.22% using the proposed baseline criterion without referring to historical TSS or market data. Specifically, TSS's prediction performance of an upward market is found far better than that of a downward market. Under the logistic regression and linear discriminant analysis, the accuracy of TSS in predicting the upward trend of the future market achieves 97.87%.