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Report 18: The potential public health impact of COVID-19 on malaria in Africa.

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Title: Report 18: The potential public health impact of COVID-19 on malaria in Africa.
Authors: Sherrard-Smith, E
Hogan, A
Hamlet, A
Watson, OJ
Whittaker, C
Winskill, P
Verity, R
Lambert, B
Cairns, M
Okell, L
Slater, H
Ghani, A
Walker, P
Churcher, T
Imperial College COVID19 response team
Item Type: Report
Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic is likely to severely interrupt health systems in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) over the coming weeks and months. Approximately 90% of malaria deaths occur in this region of the world, with an estimated 380,000 deaths from malaria in 2018. Much of the gain made in malaria control over the last decade has been due to the distribution of long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs). Many SSA countries planned to distribute these in 2020. We used COVID-19 and malaria transmission models to understand the likely impact that disruption to these distributions, alongside other core health services, could have on the malaria burden. Results indicate that if all malaria-control activities are highly disrupted then the malaria burden in 2020 could more than double that in the previous year, resulting in large malaria epidemics across the region. These will depend on the course of the COVID-19 epidemic and how it interrupts local health system. Our results also demonstrate that it is essential to prioritise the LLIN distributions either before or as soon as possible into local COVID-19 epidemics to mitigate this risk. Additional planning to ensure other malaria prevention activities are continued where possible, alongside planning to ensure basic access to antimalarial treatment, will further minimise the risk of substantial additional malaria mortality.
Issue Date: 1-May-2020
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/78668
DOI: 10.25561/78668
Start Page: 1
End Page: 9
Copyright Statement: © 2020. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Sponsor/Funder: Medical Research Council (MRC)
Funder's Grant Number: MR/R015600/1
Publication Status: Published
Appears in Collections:Imperial College London COVID-19
School of Public Health