Assessing the modelling approach and datasets required for fault detection in photovoltaic systems

Abstract

Reliable monitoring for photovoltaic assets (PVs) is essential to ensuring uptake, long term performance, and maximum return on investment of renewable systems. To this end this paper investigates the input data and machine learning techniques required for day-behind predictions of PV generation, within the scope of conducting informed maintenance of these systems. Five years of PV generation data at hourly intervals were retrieved from four commercial building-mounted PV installations in the UK, as well as weather data retrieved from MIDAS. A support vector machine, random forest and artificial neural network were trained to predict PV power generation. Random forest performed best, achieving an average mean relative error of 2.7%. Irradiance, previous generation and solar position were found to be the most important variables. Overall, this work shows how low-cost data driven analysis of PV systems can be used to support the effective management of such assets.