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Predicting progression in Parkinson's Disease using baseline and 1-Year change measures

Title: Predicting progression in Parkinson's Disease using baseline and 1-Year change measures
Authors: Chahine, LM
Siderowf, A
Barnes, J
Seedorff, N
Caspell-Garcia, C
Simuni, T
Coffey, CS
Galasko, D
Mollenhauer, B
Arnedo, V
Daegele, N
Frasier, M
Tanner, C
Kieburtz, K
Marek, K
Seibyl, J
Coffey, C
Tosun-Turgut, D
Shaw, L
Trojanowski, J
Singleton, A
Toga, A
Chahine, L
Poewe, W
Foroud, T
Poston, K
Sherer, T
Chowdhury, S
Kopil, C
Casaceli, C
Dorsey, R
Wilson, R
Mahes, S
Salerno, C
Crawford, K
Casalin, P
Malferrari, G
Weisz, MG
Orr-Urtreger, A
Montine, T
Russell, D
Dahodwala, N
Giladi, N
Factor, S
Hogarth, P
Standaert, D
Hauser, R
Jankovic, J
Saint-Hilaire, M
Richard, I
Shprecher, D
Fernandez, H
Brockmann, K
Rosenthal, L
Barone, P
Espay, A
Rowe, D
Marder, K
Santiago, A
Bressman, S
Hu, S-C
Isaacson, S
Corvol, J-C
Ruiz Martinez, J
Tolosa, E
Tai, Y
Politis, M
Smejdir, D
Rees, L
Williams, K
Kausar, F
Richardson, W
Willeke, D
Peacock, S
Sommerfeld, B
Freed, A
Wakeman, K
Blair, C
Guthrie, S
Harrell, L
Hunter, C
Thomas, C-A
James, R
Zimmerman, G
Brown, V
Mule, J
Hilt, E
Ribb, K
Ainscough, S
Wethington, M
Ranola, M
Santana, HM
Moreno, J
Raymond, D
Speketer, K
Carvajal, L
Carvalho, S
Croitoru, I
Garrido, A
Payne, LM
Viswanth, V
Severt, L
Facheris, M
Soares, H
Mintun, MA
Cedarbaum, J
Taylor, P
Biglan, K
Vandenbroucke, E
Sheikh, ZH
Bingol, B
Fischer, T
Sardi, P
Forrat, R
Reith, A
Egebjerg, J
Hillert, GA
Saba, B
Min, C
Umek, R
Mather, J
De Santi, S
Post, A
Boess, F
Taylor, K
Grachev, I
Avbersek, A
Muglia, P
Merchant, K
Tauscher, J
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: Background: Improved prediction of Parkinson’s disease (PD) progression is needed to support clinical decision-making and to accelerate research trials. Objectives: To examine whether baseline measures and their 1-year change predict longer-term progression in early PD. Methods: Parkinson’s Progression Markers Initiative study data were used. Participants had disease duration ≤2 years, abnormal dopamine transporter (DAT) imaging, and were untreated with PD medications. Baseline and 1-year change in clinical, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), and imaging measures were evaluated as candidate predictors of longer-term (up to 5 years) change in Movement Disorders Society-Unified Parkinson’s Disease Rating Scale (MDS-UPDRS) score and DAT specific binding ratios (SBR) using linear mixed-effects models. Results: Among 413 PD participants, median follow-up was 5 years. Change in MDS-UPDRS from year-2 to last follow-up was associated with disease duration (β= 0.351; 95% CI = 0.146, 0.555), male gender (β= 3.090; 95% CI = 0.310, 5.869), and baseline (β= –0.199; 95% CI = –0.315, –0.082) and 1-year change (β= 0.540; 95% CI = 0.423, 0.658) in MDS-UPDRS; predictors in the model accounted for 17.6% of the variance in outcome. Predictors of percent change in mean SBR from year-2 to last follow-up included baseline rapid eye movement sleep behavior disorder score (β= –0.6229; 95% CI = –1.2910, 0.0452), baseline (β= 7.232; 95% CI = 2.268, 12.195) and 1-year change (β= 45.918; 95% CI = 35.994,55.843) in mean striatum SBR, and 1-year change in autonomic symptom score (β= –0.325;95% CI = –0.695, 0.045); predictors in the model accounted for 44.1% of the variance. Conclusions: Baseline clinical, CSF, and imaging measures in early PD predicted change in MDS-UPDRS and dopamine-transporter binding, but the predictive value of the models was low. Adding the short-term change of possible predictors improved the predictive value, especially for modeling change in dopamine-transporter binding.
Issue Date: 11-Oct-2019
Date of Acceptance: 26-Jul-2019
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/77171
DOI: 10.3233/JPD-181518
ISSN: 1877-718X
Publisher: IOS Press
Start Page: 665
End Page: 679
Journal / Book Title: Journal of Parkinsons Disease
Volume: 9
Issue: 4
Copyright Statement: © 2019 – IOS Press and the authors. All rights reserved This article is published online with Open Access and distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (CC BY-NC 4.0).
Sponsor/Funder: Michael J Fox Foundation
Funder's Grant Number: PPMI/5583709074FF
Keywords: Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Neurosciences
Neurosciences & Neurology
Parkinson's disease
biomarkers
disease progression
surrogate endpoint
SLEEP BEHAVIOR DISORDER
PROGNOSTIC-FACTORS
RATING-SCALE
MOTOR PROGRESSION
IDENTIFICATION
BOOTSTRAP
SPECT
TAU
Parkinson’s disease
biomarkers
disease progression
surrogate endpoint
The Parkinson’s Progression Markers Initiative
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Neurosciences
Neurosciences & Neurology
Parkinson's disease
biomarkers
disease progression
surrogate endpoint
SLEEP BEHAVIOR DISORDER
PROGNOSTIC-FACTORS
RATING-SCALE
MOTOR PROGRESSION
IDENTIFICATION
BOOTSTRAP
SPECT
TAU
0601 Biochemistry and Cell Biology
1109 Neurosciences
Publication Status: Published
Online Publication Date: 2019-10-11
Appears in Collections:Department of Brain Sciences