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Report 1: Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus cases in Wuhan City, China

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Title: Report 1: Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus cases in Wuhan City, China
Authors: Imai, N
Dorigatti, I
Cori, A
Riley, S
Ferguson, N
Item Type: Report
Abstract: We estimate that a total of 1,723 cases of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan City (95% CI: 427 – 4,471) had onset of symptoms by 12th January 2020 (the last reported onset date of any case). This estimate is based on the following assumptions: • Wuhan International Airport has a catchment population of 19 million individuals [1]. • There is a mean 10-day delay between infection and detection, comprising a 5-6 day incubation period [8,9] and a 4-5 day delay from symptom onset to detection/hospitalisation of a case (the cases detected in Thailand and Japan were hospitalised 3 and 7 days after onset, respectively) [4,10]. • Total volume of international travel from Wuhan over the last two months has been 3,301 passengers per day. This estimate is derived from the 3,418 foreign passengers per day in the top 20 country destinations based on 2018 IATA data [11], and uses 2016 IATA data held by Imperial College to correct for the travel surge at Chinese New Year present in the latter data (which has not happened yet this year) and for travel to countries outside the top 20 destination list.
Issue Date: 17-Jan-2020
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/77149
DOI: 10.25561/77149
Start Page: 1
End Page: 5
Copyright Statement: © 2020. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Sponsor/Funder: Medical Research Council (MRC)
Funder's Grant Number: MR/R015600/1
Keywords: COVID-19
Epidemic Size
Publication Status: Published
Appears in Collections:Imperial College London COVID-19
School of Public Health