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A novel energy systems model to explore the role of land use and reforestation in achieving carbon mitigation targets: A Brazil case study

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Title: A novel energy systems model to explore the role of land use and reforestation in achieving carbon mitigation targets: A Brazil case study
Authors: García Kerdan, I
Giarola, S
Hawkes, A
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: Due to its low global share of direct energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions (1–2%), the implications of technological transitions in the agricultural and forestry sector on the energy system have been overlooked. This paper introduces the Agriculture and Land Use Sector module part of the ModUlar energy System Environment (MUSE), a novel energy system simulation model. The study presents a generalisable method that enables energy modellers to characterise agricultural technologies within an energy system modelling framework. Different mechanisation processes were characterised to simulate intensification/extensification transitions in the sector and its wider implications in the energy and land use system aiming at providing reliable non-energy outputs similarly to those found in dedicated land use models. Additionally, a forest growth model has been integrated to explore the role of reforestation alongside decarbonisation measures in the energy system in achieving carbon mitigation pathways. To illustrate the model's capabilities, Brazil is used as case study. Outputs suggest that by 2030 under a 2 °C mitigation scenario, most of Brazil agricultural production would move from ‘transitional’ to ‘modern’ practices, improving productivity and reducing deforestation rates, at the expense of higher energy and fertiliser demand. By mid-century Brazil has the potential to liberate around 24.4 Mha of agricultural land, where large-scale reforestation could have the capacity to sequester around 5.6 GtCO2, alleviating mitigation efforts in the energy system, especially reducing carbon capture and storage technology investments in the industry and power sector.
Issue Date: 20-Sep-2019
Date of Acceptance: 28-May-2019
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/71035
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.05.345
ISSN: 0959-6526
Publisher: Elsevier
Start Page: 796
End Page: 821
Journal / Book Title: Journal of Cleaner Production
Volume: 232
Copyright Statement: © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This manuscript is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.
Sponsor/Funder: Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)
Newton/NERC/FAPESP Sustainable Gas Futures project NE/N018656/1
Funder's Grant Number: NE/N018656/1
Newton/NERC/FAPESP Sustainable Gas Futures project NE/N018656/1
Keywords: Environmental Sciences
0907 Environmental Engineering
0910 Manufacturing Engineering
0915 Interdisciplinary Engineering
Publication Status: Published
Online Publication Date: 2019-06-03
Appears in Collections:Earth Science and Engineering
Chemical Engineering
Faculty of Engineering