Resilience assessment for interdependent urban infrastructure systems using dynamic network flow models

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Title: Resilience assessment for interdependent urban infrastructure systems using dynamic network flow models
Authors: Goldbeck, N
Angeloudis, P
Ochieng, W
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: Critical infrastructure systems are becoming increasingly interdependent, which can exacerbate the impacts of disruptive events through cascading failures, hindered asset repairs and network congestion. Current resilience assessment methods fall short of fully capturing such interdependency effects as they tend to model asset reliability and network flows separately and often rely on static flow assignment methods. In this paper, we develop an integrated, dynamic modelling and simulation framework that combines network and asset representations of infrastructure systems and models the optimal response to disruptions using a rolling planning horizon. The framework considers dependencies pertaining to failure propagation, system-of-systems architecture and resources required for operating and repairing assets. Stochastic asset failure is captured by a scenario tree generation algorithm whereas the redistribution of network flows and the optimal deployment of repair resources are modelled using a minimum cost flow approach. A case study on London’s metro and electric power networks shows how the proposed methodology can be used to assess the resilience of city-scale infrastructure systems to a local flooding incident and estimate the value of the resilience loss triangle for different levels of hazard exposure and repair capabilities.
Issue Date: 1-Aug-2019
Date of Acceptance: 2-Mar-2019
ISSN: 0951-8320
Journal / Book Title: Reliability Engineering and System Safety
Copyright Statement: This paper is embargoed until 12 months after publication.
Sponsor/Funder: Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council
Keywords: 09 Engineering
15 Commerce, Management, Tourism And Services
01 Mathematical Sciences
Strategic, Defence & Security Studies
Publication Status: Accepted
Appears in Collections:Faculty of Engineering
Civil and Environmental Engineering

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