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Resilience assessment for interdependent urban infrastructure systems using dynamic network flow models

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Title: Resilience assessment for interdependent urban infrastructure systems using dynamic network flow models
Authors: Goldbeck, N
Angeloudis, P
Ochieng, W
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: Critical infrastructure systems are becoming increasingly interdependent, which can exacerbate the impacts of disruptive events through cascading failures, hindered asset repairs and network congestion. Current resilience assessment methods fall short of fully capturing such interdependency effects as they tend to model asset reliability and network flows separately and often rely on static flow assignment methods. In this paper, we develop an integrated, dynamic modelling and simulation framework that combines network and asset representations of infrastructure systems and models the optimal response to disruptions using a rolling planning horizon. The framework considers dependencies pertaining to failure propagation, system-of-systems architecture and resources required for operating and repairing assets. Stochastic asset failure is captured by a scenario tree generation algorithm whereas the redistribution of network flows and the optimal deployment of repair resources are modelled using a minimum cost flow approach. A case study on London’s metro and electric power networks shows how the proposed methodology can be used to assess the resilience of city-scale infrastructure systems to a local flooding incident and estimate the value of the resilience loss triangle for different levels of hazard exposure and repair capabilities.
Issue Date: 1-Aug-2019
Date of Acceptance: 2-Mar-2019
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/67298
DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2019.03.007
ISSN: 0951-8320
Publisher: Elsevier
Start Page: 62
End Page: 79
Journal / Book Title: Reliability Engineering and System Safety
Volume: 188
Issue: 1
Copyright Statement: © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This manuscript is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Sponsor/Funder: Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council
Keywords: Science & Technology
Engineering, Industrial
Operations Research & Management Science
Resilience assessment
Interdependent infrastructure systems
Infrastructure assets
Repairable systems modelling
Dynamic network flow modelling
01 Mathematical Sciences
09 Engineering
15 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services
Strategic, Defence & Security Studies
Publication Status: Published
Online Publication Date: 2019-03-04
Appears in Collections:Civil and Environmental Engineering
Faculty of Engineering