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### Prospects for resolving the Hubble constant tension with standard sirens

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 Title: Prospects for resolving the Hubble constant tension with standard sirens Authors: Feeney, SMPeiris, HVWilliamson, ARNissanke, SMMortlock, DJAlsing, JScolnic, D Item Type: Journal Article Abstract: The Hubble constant ($H_0$) estimated from the local Cepheid-supernova (SN) distance ladder is in 3-$\sigma$ tension with the value extrapolated from cosmic microwave background (CMB) data assuming the standard cosmological model. Whether this tension represents new physics or systematic effects is the subject of intense debate. Here, we investigate how new, independent $H_0$ estimates can arbitrate this tension, assessing whether the measurements are consistent with being derived from the same model using the posterior predictive distribution (PPD). We show that, with existing data, the inverse distance ladder formed from BOSS baryon acoustic oscillation measurements and the Pantheon SN sample yields an $H_0$ posterior near-identical to the Planck CMB measurement. The observed local distance ladder value is a very unlikely draw from the resulting PPD. Turning to the future, we find that a sample of $\sim50$ binary neutron star "standard sirens" (detectable within the next decade) will be able to adjudicate between the local and CMB estimates. Issue Date: 14-Feb-2019 Date of Acceptance: 4-Jan-2019 URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/67123 DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.122.061105 ISSN: 0031-9007 Publisher: American Physical Society Journal / Book Title: Physical Review Letters Volume: 122 Copyright Statement: © 2019 American Physical Society Keywords: astro-ph.CO02 Physical SciencesGeneral Physics Notes: Eight pages, four figures. v3: matches version accepted by Physical Review Letters. Code available at https://github.com/sfeeney/hh0 Publication Status: Published Article Number: ARTN 061105 Appears in Collections: PhysicsAstrophysicsFaculty of Natural Sciences