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Drivers of Precipitation Change: An Energetic Understanding

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Title: Drivers of Precipitation Change: An Energetic Understanding
Authors: Richardson, TB
Forster, PM
Andrews, T
Boucher, O
Faluvegi, G
Flaeschner, D
Hodnebrog, O
Kasoar, M
Kirkevag, A
Lamarque, J-F
Myhre, G
Olivie, D
Samset, BH
Shawki, D
Shindell, D
Takemura, T
Voulgarakis, A
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: The response of the hydrological cycle to climate forcings can be understood within the atmospheric energy budget framework. In this study precipitation and energy budget responses to five forcing agents are analyzed using 10 climate models from the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). Precipitation changes are split into a forcing-dependent fast response and a temperature-driven hydrological sensitivity. Globally, when normalized by top-of-atmosphere (TOA) forcing, fast precipitation changes are most sensitive to strongly absorbing drivers (CO2, black carbon). However, over land fast precipitation changes are most sensitive to weakly absorbing drivers (sulfate, solar) and are linked to rapid circulation changes. Despite this, land-mean fast responses to CO2 and black carbon exhibit more intermodel spread. Globally, the hydrological sensitivity is consistent across forcings, mainly associated with increased longwave cooling, which is highly correlated with intermodel spread. The land-mean hydrological sensitivity is weaker, consistent with limited moisture availability. The PDRMIP results are used to construct a simple model for land-mean and sea-mean precipitation change based on sea surface temperature change and TOA forcing. The model matches well with CMIP5 ensemble mean historical and future projections, and is used to understand the contributions of different drivers. During the twentieth century, temperature-driven intensification of land-mean precipitation has been masked by fast precipitation responses to anthropogenic sulfate and volcanic forcing, consistent with the small observed trend. However, as projected sulfate forcing decreases, and warming continues, land-mean precipitation is expected to increase more rapidly, and may become clearly observable by the mid-twenty-first century.
Issue Date: 1-Dec-2018
Date of Acceptance: 1-Sep-2018
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/64898
DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0240.1
ISSN: 0894-8755
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Start Page: 9641
End Page: 9657
Journal / Book Title: Journal of Climate
Volume: 31
Issue: 23
Copyright Statement: © 2018 American Meteorological Society. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Keywords: Science & Technology
Physical Sciences
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Atmosphere
Hydrologic cycle
Precipitation
Aerosols
Greenhouse gases
Radiative forcing
ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON
HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE
BLACK CARBON
CLIMATE MODELS
RESPONSES
CO2
DIOXIDE
SIMULATIONS
CIRCULATION
SENSITIVITY
0401 Atmospheric Sciences
0405 Oceanography
Publication Status: Published
Open Access location: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0240.1
Online Publication Date: 2018-11-14
Appears in Collections:Space and Atmospheric Physics
Physics