Using machine learning to build temperature-based ozone parameterizations for climate sensitivity simulations
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Supporting information
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
A number of studies have demonstrated the importance of ozone in climate change simulations, for example concerning global warming projections and atmospheric dynamics. However, fully interactive atmospheric chemistry schemes needed for calculating changes in ozone are computationally expensive. Climate modelers therefore often use climatological ozone fields, which are typically neither consistent with the actual climate state simulated by each model nor with the specific climate change scenario. This limitation applies in particular to standard modeling experiments such as preindustrial control or abrupt 4xCO2 climate sensitivity simulations. Here we suggest a novel method using a simple linear machine learning regression algorithm to predict ozone distributions for preindustrial and abrupt 4xCO2 simulations. Using the atmospheric temperature field as the only input, the regression reliably predicts three-dimensional ozone distributions at monthly to daily time intervals. In particular, the representation of stratospheric ozone variability is much improved compared with a fixed climatology, which is important for interactions with dynamical phenomena such as the polar vortices and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. Our method requires training data covering only a fraction of the usual length of simulations and thus promises to be an important stepping stone towards a range of new computationally efficient methods to consider ozone changes in long climate simulations. We highlight key development steps to further improve and extend the scope of machine learning-based ozone parameterizations.
Date Issued
2018-10-09
Date Acceptance
2018-09-14
Citation
Environmental Research Letters, 2018, 13 (10)
ISSN
1748-9326
Publisher
Institute of Physics (IoP)
Journal / Book Title
Environmental Research Letters
Volume
13
Issue
10
Copyright Statement
© 2018 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. Original content from this
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work may be used under
the terms of the
Creative
Commons Attribution 3.0
licence
.
Any further distribution of
this work must maintain
attribution to the
author
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)
and the title of
the work, journal citation
and DOI.
Sponsor
Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)
Identifier
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aae2be
Grant Number
DCR00470
Subjects
Ozone
Machine Learning
Climate Change
Numerical Analysis, Computer-Assisted
Computer Simulation
Artificial Intelligence
Regression Analysis
Atmosphere
Earth Sciences
Climate
Air Pollutants
Statistics
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
104016
Date Publish Online
2018-09-20