Decision making under deep uncertainty for adapting urban drainage systems to change

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Title: Decision making under deep uncertainty for adapting urban drainage systems to change
Authors: Babovic, F
Mijic, A
Madani, K
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: Urbanisation and climate change are augmenting the uncertainty surrounding the future state of the world’s water resource and are resulting in cities experiencing growing levels of risk of pluvial flooding. Drainage infrastructure is generally built using the paradigm of ‘predict and optimise’; however, this approach fails to account for erroneous predictions. This can result in drainage systems delivering insufficient levels of flood protection. Irrespective of these uncertainties new drainage systems must be built, and existing ones adapted in such a way that they remain reliable. This work presents a critical analysis of the drivers of change of urban pluvial flooding and the uncertainties surrounding urban flood planning; thereby highlighting the shortcomings of current planning methodologies. Different Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) frameworks are then explored and it is shown that they offer an improved ability to design reliable urban flood systems regardless of highly uncertain future conditions.
Issue Date: 11-Oct-2018
Date of Acceptance: 17-Sep-2018
ISSN: 1573-062X
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Start Page: 552
End Page: 560
Journal / Book Title: Urban Water Journal
Volume: 15
Issue: 6
Copyright Statement: © 2018 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Urban Water Journal on 11 Oct 2018, available online:
Sponsor/Funder: Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council
Keywords: 0406 Physical Geography And Environmental Geoscience
0905 Civil Engineering
1604 Human Geography
Environmental Engineering
Publication Status: Published
Online Publication Date: 2018-10-11
Appears in Collections:Faculty of Engineering
Civil and Environmental Engineering
Centre for Environmental Policy
Faculty of Natural Sciences

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