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Serotype-specific immunity explains the incidence of diseases caused by human enteroviruses

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Title: Serotype-specific immunity explains the incidence of diseases caused by human enteroviruses
Authors: Pons Salort, M
Grassly, NC
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: Human enteroviruses are a major cause of neurological and other diseases. More than 100 serotypes are known that exhibit unexplained complex patterns of incidence, from regular cycles to more irregular patterns, and new emergences. Using 15 years of surveillance data from Japan (2000–2014) and a stochastic transmission model with accurate demography, we show that acquired serotype-specific immunity can explain the diverse patterns of 18 of the 20 most common serotypes (including Coxsackieviruses, Echoviruses, and Enterovirus-A71). The remaining two serotypes required a change in viral characteristics, including an increase in pathogenicity for Coxsackievirus-A6, which is consistent with its recent global rise in incidence. On the basis of our findings, we are able to predict outbreaks 2 years ahead of time (2015–2016). These results have implications for the impact of vaccines under development.
Issue Date: 24-Aug-2018
Date of Acceptance: 3-Jul-2018
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/62260
DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.aat6777
ISSN: 0036-8075
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science
Start Page: 800
End Page: 803
Journal / Book Title: Science
Volume: 361
Issue: 6404
Copyright Statement: © 2018 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works http://www.sciencemag.org/about/science-licenses-journal-article-reuse This is an article distributed under the terms of the Science Journals Default License.
Sponsor/Funder: Wellcome Trust
Funder's Grant Number: 106073/Z/14/Z
Keywords: Science & Technology
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Science & Technology - Other Topics
MD Multidisciplinary
General Science & Technology
Publication Status: Published
Open Access location: http://science.sciencemag.org/content/361/6404/800.full
Appears in Collections:School of Public Health