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Modelling the impact of larviciding on the population dynamics and biting rates of Simulium damnosum s.l.: implications for vector control as a complementary strategy for onchocerciasis elimination in Africa

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Title: Modelling the impact of larviciding on the population dynamics and biting rates of Simulium damnosum s.l.: implications for vector control as a complementary strategy for onchocerciasis elimination in Africa
Authors: Routledge, I
Walker, M
Cheke, R
Bhatt, S
Baleguel Nkot, P
Matthews, G
Baleguel, D
Dobson, H
Wiles, TL
Basanez, MG
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: Background: In 2012, the World Health Organization set goals for the elimination of onchocerciasis transmission by 2020 in selected African countries. Epidemiological data and mathematical modelling have indicated that elimination may not be achieved with annual ivermectin distribution in all endemic foci. Complementary and alternative treatment strategies (ATS), including vector control, will be necessary. Implementation of vector control will require that the ecology and population dynamics of Simulium da mnosum sensu lato be carefully considered. Methods: We adapted our previous SIMuliid POPulation dynamics (SIMPOP) model to explore the impact of larvicidal insecticides on S. damnosum s.l . biting rates in different ecological contexts and to identify how frequently and for how long vector control should be continued to sustain substantive reductions in vector biting. SIMPOP was fitted to data from large - scale aerial larviciding trials in savannah sites (Ghana) and small - scale ground larviciding trials in f orest areas (Cameroon). The model was validated against independent data from Burkina Faso/Côte d’Ivoire (savannah) and Bioko (forest). Scenario analysis explored the effects of ecological and programmatic factors such as pre - control daily biting rate ( DBR ) and larviciding scheme design on reductions and resurgences in biting rates. Results: The estimated efficacy of large - scale aerial larviciding in the savannah was greater than that of ground - based larviciding in the forest. Small changes in larvicidal ef ficacy can have large impacts on intervention success. At 93% larvicidal efficacy (a realistic value based on field trials), 10 consecutive weekly larvicidal treatments would reduce DBR s by 9 6 % (e.g. from 400 to 16 bites/person/day ). At 70% efficacy, and f or 10 weekly applications, the DBR would decrease by 6 7% (e.g. from 400 to 132 bites/person/day). Larviciding is more likely to succeed in areas with lower water temperatures and where blackfly species have longer gonotrophic cycles. Conclusions: Focal vector control can reduce vector biting rates in settings where a high larvicidal efficacy can be achieved and an appropriate duration and frequency of larviciding can be ensured. Future work linking SIMPOP with onchocerciasis transmission models will perm it evaluation of the impact of combined anti - vectorial and anti - parasitic interventions on accelerating elimination of the disease.
Issue Date: 29-May-2018
Date of Acceptance: 23-Apr-2018
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/59268
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-018-2864-y
ISSN: 1756-3305
Publisher: BioMed Central
Start Page: 1
End Page: 16
Journal / Book Title: Parasites & Vectors
Volume: 11
Copyright Statement: © The Author(s). 2018 Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.
Sponsor/Funder: Wellcome Trust
Wellcome Trust
The Royal Society
The Task Force for Global Health
Wellcome Trust
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Funder's Grant Number: 085133/Z/08/Z
092677/Z/10/Z
AA90078
MA4501180169
109310/Z/15/Z
MR/K010174/1B
MR/R015600/1
Keywords: Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Parasitology
Tropical Medicine
Onchocerciasis
Vector control
Vector ecology
Mathematical modelling
Population dynamics
Alternative treatment strategy
Elimination
Simulium damnosum (s.l.)
Africa
NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES
CONTROL PROGRAM AREA
IVERMECTIN TREATMENT
RIVER-BLINDNESS
ECONOMIC-EVALUATION
WINDBORNE VECTORS
MASS TREATMENT
ENDEMIC AREAS
WEST-AFRICA
BIOKO FORM
Africa
Alternative treatment strategy
Elimination
Mathematical modelling
Onchocerciasis
Population dynamics
Simulium damnosum (s.l.)
Vector control
Vector ecology
Animals
Burkina Faso
Cameroon
Cote d'Ivoire
Disease Eradication
Ghana
Humans
Insect Bites and Stings
Insect Control
Insect Vectors
Insecticides
Ivermectin
Models, Theoretical
Onchocerciasis
Population Dynamics
Simuliidae
Animals
Humans
Simuliidae
Onchocerciasis
Insect Bites and Stings
Ivermectin
Insecticides
Insect Vectors
Population Dynamics
Insect Control
Models, Theoretical
Cameroon
Burkina Faso
Cote d'Ivoire
Ghana
Disease Eradication
Mycology & Parasitology
1108 Medical Microbiology
1117 Public Health and Health Services
Tropical Medicine
Publication Status: Published
Article Number: 316
Online Publication Date: 2018-05-29
Appears in Collections:School of Public Health
Faculty of Natural Sciences