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Long-Lead Prediction of the 2015 Fire and Haze Episode in Indonesia

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Title: Long-Lead Prediction of the 2015 Fire and Haze Episode in Indonesia
Authors: Shawki, D
Field, RD
Tippett, MK
Saharjo, BH
Albar, I
Atmoko, D
Voulgarakis, A
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: We conducted a case study of National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System version 2 seasonal model forecast performance over Indonesia in predicting the dry conditions in 2015 that led to severe fire, in comparison to the non-El Niño dry season conditions of 2016. Forecasts of the Drought Code (DC) component of Indonesia's Fire Danger Rating System were examined across the entire equatorial Asia region and for the primary burning regions within it. Our results show that early warning lead times of high observed DC in September and October 2015 varied considerably for different regions. High DC over Southern Kalimantan and Southern New Guinea were predicted with 180 day lead times, whereas Southern Sumatra had lead times of up to only 60 days, which we attribute to the absence in the forecasts of an eastward decrease in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures. This case study provides the starting point for longer-term evaluation of seasonal fire danger rating forecasts over Indonesia.
Issue Date: 16-Oct-2017
Date of Acceptance: 9-Sep-2017
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/54945
DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073660
ISSN: 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
Start Page: 9996
End Page: 10005
Journal / Book Title: Geophysical Research Letters
Volume: 44
Issue: 19
Copyright Statement: ©2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
Keywords: Science & Technology
Physical Sciences
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Geology
Indonesia
biomass burning
fire
haze
forecasting
El Nino
INDIAN-OCEAN DIPOLE
EL-NINO
MARITIME CONTINENT
SOUTHEAST-ASIA
DROUGHT
SENSITIVITY
KALIMANTAN
SYSTEM
SKILL
MODIS
MD Multidisciplinary
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Publication Status: Published
Appears in Collections:Space and Atmospheric Physics
Physics
Faculty of Natural Sciences



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