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Probabilistic Solar Wind and Geomagnetic Forecasting Using an Analogue Ensemble or "Similar Day" Approach

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Title: Probabilistic Solar Wind and Geomagnetic Forecasting Using an Analogue Ensemble or "Similar Day" Approach
Authors: Owens, MJ
Riley, P
Horbury, TS
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: Effective space-weather prediction and mitigation requires accurate forecasting of near-Earth solar-wind conditions. Numerical magnetohydrodynamic models of the solar wind, driven by remote solar observations, are gaining skill at forecasting the large-scale solar-wind features that give rise to near-Earth variations over days and weeks. There remains a need for accurate short-term (hours to days) solar-wind forecasts, however. In this study we investigate the analogue ensemble (AnEn), or “similar day”, approach that was developed for atmospheric weather forecasting. The central premise of the AnEn is that past variations that are analogous or similar to current conditions can be used to provide a good estimate of future variations. By considering an ensemble of past analogues, the AnEn forecast is inherently probabilistic and provides a measure of the forecast uncertainty. We show that forecasts of solar-wind speed can be improved by considering both speed and density when determining past analogues, whereas forecasts of the out-of-ecliptic magnetic field [BN] are improved by also considering the in-ecliptic magnetic-field components. In general, the best forecasts are found by considering only the previous 6 – 12 hours of observations. Using these parameters, the AnEn provides a valuable probabilistic forecast for solar-wind speed, density, and in-ecliptic magnetic field over lead times from a few hours to around four days. For BN, which is central to space-weather disturbance, the AnEn only provides a valuable forecast out to around six to seven hours. As the inherent predictability of this parameter is low, this is still likely a marked improvement over other forecast methods. We also investigate the use of the AnEn in forecasting geomagnetic indices Dst and Kp. The AnEn provides a valuable probabilistic forecast of both indices out to around four days. We outline a number of future improvements to AnEn forecasts of near-Earth solar-wind and geomagnetic conditions.
Issue Date: 1-May-2017
Date of Acceptance: 30-Mar-2017
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/51012
DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11207-017-1090-7
ISSN: 0038-0938
Publisher: Springer Verlag
Journal / Book Title: Solar Physics
Volume: 292
Issue: 5
Copyright Statement: © The Author(s) 2017 This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.
Sponsor/Funder: Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC)
Funder's Grant Number: ST/N000692/1
Keywords: Science & Technology
Physical Sciences
Astronomy & Astrophysics
Solar wind
Space weather
Heliospheric magnetic field
INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC-FIELD
TIME KP PREDICTIONS
SPACE WEATHER
MODELS
0201 Astronomical And Space Sciences
Publication Status: Published
Open Access location: https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11207-017-1090-7.pdf
Article Number: 69
Appears in Collections:Space and Atmospheric Physics
Physics



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