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The future cost of electrical energy storage based on experience rates

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Title: The future cost of electrical energy storage based on experience rates
Authors: Schmidt, O
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: Electrical energy storage could play a pivotal role in future low-carbon electricity systems, balancing inflexible or intermittentsupply with demand. Cost projections are important for understanding this role, but data are scarce and uncertain.Here, we construct experience curves to project future prices for 11 electrical energy storage technologies. We find that,regardless of technology, capital costs are on a trajectory towards US$340 ± 60 kWh−1for installed stationary systems andUS$175 ± 25 kWh−1for battery packs once 1 TWh of capacity is installed for each technology. Bottom-up assessment ofmaterial and production costs indicates this price range is not infeasible. Cumulative investments of US$175–510 billion wouldbe needed for any technology to reach 1 TWh deployment, which could be achieved by 2027–2040 based on market growthprojections. Finally, we explore how the derived rates of future cost reduction influence when storage becomes economicallycompetitive in transport and residential applications. Thus, our experience-curve data set removes a barrier for further studyby industry, policymakers and academics.
Issue Date: 10-Jul-2017
Date of Acceptance: 8-Jun-2017
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/50848
DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nenergy.2017.110
ISSN: 2058-7546
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
Journal / Book Title: Nature Energy
Volume: 2
Copyright Statement: Copyright © 2017, Rights Managed by Nature Publishing Group
Sponsor/Funder: Engineering & Physical Science Research Council (E
Engineering & Physical Science Research Council (EPSRC)
Economic & Social Research Council (ESRC)
Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council
Funder's Grant Number: EP/K503733/1
Publication Status: Published
Article Number: 17110
Appears in Collections:Centre for Environmental Policy
Chemical Engineering
Faculty of Natural Sciences

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