A simulation framework to analyse weather-induced faults

Abstract

A framework for simulating weather-induced dependent faults across networks is proposed and demonstrated on a truncated GB network representative of the Scottish and Northern English network. Different weather scenarios are simulated on the test network considering location and wind-speed intensity, analysed using Monte-Carlo simulation. The sensitivity of the network to co-occurrence of faults is simulated by changing the sensitivity of network assets to wind speed via an exponential function. Greater sensitivity to wind speed induces a significant increase in outages, as reflected by risk metrics, specifically Expected Energy Not Served and Expected Maximum Load Shed.