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C-Vine copula mixture model for clustering of residential electrical load pattern data

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Title: C-Vine copula mixture model for clustering of residential electrical load pattern data
Authors: Sun, M
Konstantelos, I
Strbac, G
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: The ongoing deployment of residential smart meters in numerous jurisdictions has led to an influx of electricity consumption data. This information presents a valuable opportunity to suppliers for better understanding their customer base and designing more effective tariff structures. In the past, various clustering methods have been proposed for meaningful customer partitioning. This paper presents a novel finite mixture modeling framework based on C-vine copulas (CVMM) for carrying out consumer categorization. The superiority of the proposed framework lies in the great flexibility of pair copulas towards identifying multi-dimensional dependency structures present in load profiling data. CVMM is compared to other classical methods by using real demand measurements recorded across 2,613 households in a London smart-metering trial. The superior performance of the proposed approach is demonstrated by analyzing four validity indicators. In addition, a decision tree classification module for partitioning new consumers is developed and the improved predictive performance of CVMM compared to existing methods is highlighted. Further case studies are carried out based on different loading conditions and different sets of large numbers of households to demonstrate the advantages and to test the scalability of the proposed method.
Issue Date: 28-Sep-2016
Date of Acceptance: 1-Sep-2016
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/42645
DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1109/TPWRS.2016.2614366
ISSN: 0885-8950
Publisher: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE)
Start Page: 2382
End Page: 2393
Journal / Book Title: IEEE Transactions on Power Systems
Volume: 32
Issue: 3
Copyright Statement: © 2016 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works.
Keywords: Science & Technology
Engineering, Electrical & Electronic
customer classification
decision trees
mixture models
pair-copula construction
smart meters
0906 Electrical And Electronic Engineering
Publication Status: Published
Appears in Collections:Electrical and Electronic Engineering
Centre for Environmental Policy
Faculty of Natural Sciences
Faculty of Engineering