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Reducing China’s road transport sector CO2 emissions to 2050: Technologies, costs and decomposition analysis

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China transport paper 10th December 2014.docxAccepted version162.72 kBMicrosoft WordView/Open
Title: Reducing China’s road transport sector CO2 emissions to 2050: Technologies, costs and decomposition analysis
Authors: Gambhir, A
Tse, LKC
Tong, D
Martinez-Botas, R
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: The growth of China’s road transport sector has driven huge increases in China’s oil demand and CO2 emissions over the last two decades, and these trends are likely to continue in the absence of specific measures to reduce the average carbon intensity of road vehicles. This paper describes a model, provided in full online, to undertake scenario analysis on the cost and CO2 emissions impact of substituting current vehicle drivetrain types with alternatives during the period 2010–2050. A detailed decomposition of the additional costs and CO2 emissions savings of each low-carbon vehicle type into their component parts is undertaken to calculate the marginal abatement cost of each vehicle and drivetrain type in 2050. The results indicate that passenger cars and heavy-duty trucks constitute the majority of future CO2 emissions savings potential, but that, using the central cost assumptions, alternative vehicle drivetrains are significantly more cost-effective for trucks than passenger cars. The low-carbon scenario sees demand for oil products (gasoline and diesel) more than 40% below the business-as-usual scenario in 2050. The total mitigation cost in 2050 is (US2010)$64 billion per year, or 1.3% of the total annual expenditure on road transport in China in 2050, using a discount rate of 5% to annualise vehicle purchase costs, although this cost increases with higher discount rates. A sensitivity analysis demonstrates that measures in addition to those assumed in the low-carbon scenario could achieve further emissions reductions, in some cases at negative costs. The availability and transparency of the model allows testing and development of a range of further scenarios and sensitivities, to aid in planning an optimal decarbonisation strategy for this highly carbon-intensive sector.
Issue Date: 13-Feb-2015
Date of Acceptance: 5-Jan-2015
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/38818
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.01.018
ISSN: 1872-9118
Publisher: Elsevier
Start Page: 905
End Page: 917
Journal / Book Title: Applied Energy
Volume: 157
Copyright Statement: © 2015 Elsevier. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Keywords: Science & Technology
Technology
Energy & Fuels
Engineering, Chemical
Engineering
China
Transport
CO2 emissions
Decomposition analysis
Marginal abatement cost
SCENARIO ANALYSIS
ENERGY DEMAND
GHG EMISSIONS
VEHICLE
CURVES
Energy
09 Engineering
14 Economics
Publication Status: Published
Appears in Collections:Faculty of Engineering
Mechanical Engineering
Centre for Environmental Policy
Faculty of Natural Sciences



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