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The future costs of OPV - A bottom-up model of material and manufacturing costs with uncertainty analysis

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OPV future cost paper revised 6 May 2016.docxAccepted version549.7 kBMicrosoft WordView/Open
Title: The future costs of OPV - A bottom-up model of material and manufacturing costs with uncertainty analysis
Authors: Gambhir, A
Sandwell, P
Nelson, J
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: Organic photovoltaic (OPV) technology has the potential to provide cheap solar electricity, given advances in low-cost production and module efficiency and lifetime. However, several uncertainties remain in terms of the future costs of OPV modules, which depend on future material and manufacturing costs, as well as key performance characteristics. This assessment takes an engineering-based approach to assessing the potential future cost of each component of OPV modules, as well as the future scale of OPV production plants and associated scale economies, using stochastic analysis to account for uncertainty. The analysis suggests that OPV module costs could fall within a (interquartile) range of US$0.23–0.34/Wp, with a median cost estimate of US$0.28/Wp in the near-term, with future costs most sensitive to manufacturing scale, cell efficiency and module fill factor. This compares to a projected range of module costs for more established PV technologies (crystalline silicon, cadmium telluride and copper indium gallium selenide) of US$0.35–0.6/Wp by 2020. In levelised cost of electricity terms, OPV could compete with the established technologies in both roof- and ground-mounted systems if it can achieve a 10-year lifetime.
Issue Date: 8-Jun-2016
Date of Acceptance: 23-May-2016
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/38817
DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.solmat.2016.05.056
ISSN: 0927-0248
Publisher: Elsevier
Start Page: 49
End Page: 58
Journal / Book Title: Solar Energy Materials and Solar Cells
Volume: 156
Copyright Statement: © 2016 Elsevier. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Sponsor/Funder: Engineering & Physical Science Research Council (E
Funder's Grant Number: EP/K503733/1
Keywords: Science & Technology
Technology
Physical Sciences
Energy & Fuels
Materials Science, Multidisciplinary
Physics, Applied
Materials Science
Physics
Organic photovoltaics
Solar photovolataic costs
Economies of scale
Uncertainty analysis
Manufacturing costs
Innovation
Cost reduction
POLYMER SOLAR-CELLS
ORGANIC PHOTOVOLTAICS
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGIES
REDUCTIONS
EMISSIONS
IMPACTS
POLICY
SCALE
PV
Energy
09 Engineering
03 Chemical Sciences
02 Physical Sciences
Publication Status: Published
Appears in Collections:Centre for Environmental Policy
Faculty of Natural Sciences
Grantham Institute for Climate Change