Conceiving a systemic approach to implement solar energy technology: the case of Israel

Abstract

Population growth, lifestyle and income changes as well as urbanisation are powerful driving forces behind increasing demand for energy. Since 1900, world population has more than quadrupled, real income has grown by a factor of 25, and primary energy consumption has risen by a factor of 22.5. The joint phenomenon of urban and economic growth is particularly relevant in Israel where 76% of the population lives in cities and Israel economic growth rate stood at 5.4% in 2010, a relatively high value compared to most of the OECD countries. As a consequence, total green House Gas (GHG) emissions originated from the use fossil fuels in Israel are expected to rise sharply in 2030. The promotion of renewable energy, particularly solar is a way to deal with predicted rising emissions as well as addressing energy security and increase of oil price that afflict the Middle East region. Worldwide, solar cell electricity generation market has grown dramatically, both in terms of electricity generation and market size. A paradox that this study addresses is that while Israel has developed and exported advanced solar technology, it is among the last countries that actual use this type of technology for self consumption. For most of its history, Israel has been an energy-poor state, relying almost completely on imported fossil fuels to meet its energy needs. However, the Israeli energetic independence has been changed dramatically in 2009 when two large fields (nearly 3.1 Trillion Cubic Feet) of natural gas were discovered in the Mediterranean Sea 60 km off the Israeli coast line. These discoveries have changed the energy market in Israel, bringing the decision makers to rethink about electricity production by renewable energy sources. The approaches developed in this thesis aims to achieve two main goals. To find electricity capacity can be generated by solar technologies based on atmospheric parameters and to find the optimal government incentive for renewable energy to encourage private investors to invest in PV solar systems and thus to meet the government goals of greenhouse gas reduction. To tackle these two main goals of the research, two mathematical approaches and decision-making models were developed. One model -Technical Environmental and Atmospheric (TEA Model) and optimises the application and selection of solar energy technologies in Israel. TEA model taking into accounts mainly atmospheric, demand and environmental parameters. The model provides quantitative and qualitative formulations to energy production capacity, costs, environmental impact and future electricity demand. The second model (policy model) designed to optimise the level of Feed in Tariff (FIT) by using a linear program and a Monte- Carlo Simulation. The innovation of the study is that the decision-making model takes into account factors that had not been considered together before but could have a decisive influence on the uptake of the right solar energy technology. This research found that the annual average energy output by PV system in Israel is 1735kWh=kWp (+/- 10%) and the annual average of performance ratio is 82.3%. In regards to atmospheric pollution, it was found that the increasing of air pollution causes to decrease of electricity generation by more then 10% a year. In respects to the policy analysis it was found the optimal FIT should be 0.15 $/kWh compared to 0.165 $/kWh which was paid in 2015.