Energy policy in China: using integrated climate assessment models to understand the role of lowcarbon energy strategy

Abstract

Since the transformation from command-and-control to laissez-faire capitalism in the late 1980s, China has stood out as one of the largest and fastest growing emerging economies. The phenomenal rate of development has brought about auspicious growth, at the expense of damaging the environment. One of the key problem facing energy policy makers in China revolves around climate change due to the interrelationship between economic development and energy use. Chinese CO2 emissions exceeded the US for the first time in 2006, resulting from heavy reliance on coal, strong emphasis on economic growth, focus on developing energy intensive sectors, and an inefficient energy infrastructure. This path of energy generation and consumption calls for a greater commitment to a more balanced set of energy policy goals encompassing not only stronger pollution abatement, but also security of energy supply, social equality, and governance.

The research seeks an in-depth understanding of what constitutes a successful energy policy with a particular focus on other collateral goals that Chinese policy makers should take into consideration. As a result, the research has proposed and successfully tested a Chinese Framework for Energy Policy Strategy (CFEPS). CFEPS employs and assesses a combination of qualitative analysis of Chinese energy policies and quantitative analysis of energy generation pathways by using Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM). This study has been one of the first applications of the hybrid IAM on the Chinese energy sector and involved customising the hybrid IAM to make it applicable to the Chinese context. It has resulted in a decision support tool for Chinese authorities to make informed energy policy choices.

CFEPS provides guidance on the identification of relevant factors in energy policy assessment and implementation in China. The most important factors, as CFEPS has highlighted for an improved energy policy outcome in China, includes pollution abatement, security of energy supply, economic growth, social equality, and governance. The extensibility to other similar nations has been suggested. Empirical studies at different stages of the research have been carried out to establish the applicability and validity of CFEPS.