Attribution estimates for similar extremes are robust across event definitions
File(s)
Published version (Article in Press)
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Event attribution studies assess whether and to what extent human-induced climate change has altered the likelihood or severity of extreme weather events. In recent years, studies have become routine, particularly for heatwaves in many regions, and for heavy rainfall in parts of Asia and Europe. As this body of research grows, a key question emerges: when does a new attribution study add scientific or societal value? We address this question by synthesising findings from existing attribution studies and systematically analysing how results depend on temporal and spatial event definition and dataset. While previous work has shown that quantitative outcomes are sensitive to how events are defined, we find that when similar probabilistic frameworks and comparable datasets are used, attribution results for events of the same type and magnitude within a region are often strikingly consistent. Consequently, additional studies that replicate established methods for well-studied hazards and regions often provide limited new insight unless they incorporate substantial advances in data quality. These findings have implications for operational attribution services and for the use of attribution evidence in decision-making. More broadly, they suggest the need to prioritise understudied regions, and integrative approaches that deepen causal understanding rather than repeatedly reaffirm well-established conclusions.
Date Issued
2026-09-17
Date Acceptance
2026-09-01
Citation
Communications Earth & Environment, 2026
ISSN
2662-4435
Publisher
Nature Portfolio
Journal / Book Title
Communications Earth & Environment
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2026. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
License URL
Identifier
10.1038/s43247-026-04053-2
Publication Status
Published online
Date Publish Online
2026-09-17