Belgium’s national emission pathway in the context of the global remaining carbon budget

Abstract

This Science Brief assesses the implications of the scientific evidence on carbon budgets presented in the latest assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for national carbon budgets and emissions reductions in Belgium. Based on the best available science, the global remaining carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5°C amounts to 400 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions (GtCO2). The implications of this global remaining carbon budget for Belgium can be explored by using equity and fairness principles to determine a fair national carbon budget share. A variety of principles was applied ranging from approaches that are considered inherently unfair (a grandfathering approach) to approaches that have been proposed by developing country experts. Based on this wide range of distribution keys, the minimum emissions reduction for Belgium that puts their national trajectory in line with limiting global warming to 1.5°C and on track to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions by mid‐century is ‐69% in 2030 relative to 1990 levels. If Belgium’s net zero greenhouse gas target would be advanced from 2050 to 2042, the corresponding emissions reductions in 2030 would amount to ‐61% relative to 1990 levels