Differences between the true reproduction number and the apparent reproduction number of an epidemic time series.
File(s)1-s2.0-S1755436524000033-main.pdf (1 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Eales, Oliver
Riley, Steven
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The time-varying reproduction number R(t) measures the number of new infections per infectious individual and is closely correlated with the time series of infection incidence by definition. The timings of actual infections are rarely known, and analysis of epidemics usually relies on time series data for other outcomes such as symptom onset. A common implicit assumption, when estimating R(t) from an epidemic time series, is that R(t) has the same relationship with these downstream outcomes as it does with the time series of incidence. However, this assumption is unlikely to be valid given that most epidemic time series are not perfect proxies of incidence. Rather they represent convolutions of incidence with uncertain delay distributions. Here we define the apparent time-varying reproduction number, RA(t), the reproduction number calculated from a downstream epidemic time series and demonstrate how differences between RA(t) and R(t) depend on the convolution function. The mean of the convolution function sets a time offset between the two signals, whilst the variance of the convolution function introduces a relative distortion between them. We present the convolution functions of epidemic time series that were available during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Infection prevalence, measured by random sampling studies, presents fewer biases than other epidemic time series. Here we show that additionally the mean and variance of its convolution function were similar to that obtained from traditional surveillance based on mass-testing and could be reduced using more frequent testing, or by using stricter thresholds for positivity. Infection prevalence studies continue to be a versatile tool for tracking the temporal trends of R(t), and with additional refinements to their study protocol, will be of even greater utility during any future epidemics or pandemics.
Date Issued
2024-03-01
Date Acceptance
2024-01-11
Citation
Epidemics: the journal of infectious disease dynamics, 2024, 46
ISSN
1755-4365
Publisher
Elsevier
Journal / Book Title
Epidemics: the journal of infectious disease dynamics
Volume
46
Copyright Statement
© 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
License URL
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/38227994
PII: S1755-4365(24)00003-3
Subjects
COVID-19
Humans
Pandemics
SARS-CoV-2
Time Factors
COVID-19
Disease surveillance
Epidemics
Infection prevalence
Pandemics
Reproduction number
SARS-CoV-2
Testing
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
Netherlands
Article Number
100742
Date Publish Online
2024-01-13