Epidemiological analysis of the Eyam plague outbreak of 1665-6
File(s)
Accepted version
Published version
Author(s)
Whittles, L
Didelot, X
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, is one of the deadliest infectious diseases in human history, and still causes worrying outbreaks in Africa and South America. Despite the historical and current importance of plague, several questions remain unanswered concerning its transmission routes and infection risk factors. The plague outbreak that started in September 1665 in the Derbyshire village of Eyam claimed 257 lives over 14 months, wiping out entire families. Since previous attempts at modelling the Eyam plague, new data have been unearthed from parish records revealing a much more complete record of the disease. Using a stochastic compartmental model and Bayesian analytical methods, we found that both rodent-to-human and human-to-human transmission played an important role in spreading the infection, and that they accounted, respectively, for a quarter and three-quarters of all infections, with a statistically significant seasonality effect. We also found that the force of infection was stronger for infectious individuals living in the same household compared with the rest of the village. Poverty significantly increased the risk of disease, whereas adulthood decreased the risk. These results on the Eyam outbreak contribute to the current debate on the relative importance of plague transmission routes.
Date Issued
2016-05-11
Date Acceptance
2016-04-13
Citation
Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences, 2016, 283 (1830)
ISSN
0080-4649
Publisher
The Royal Society
Journal / Book Title
Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences
Volume
283
Issue
1830
Copyright Statement
© 2016 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution
License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original
author and source are credited.
License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original
author and source are credited.
License URL
Subjects
Bayesian analysis
Monte Carlo Markov chain
interhuman transmission
plague
rodent reservoir
two-level mixing model
06 Biological Sciences
11 Medical And Health Sciences
07 Agricultural And Veterinary Sciences
Publication Status
Published