The changing demography of the cystic fibrosis population: forecasting future numbers of adults in the UK
Author(s)
Keogh, Ruth H
Tanner, Kamaryn
Simmonds, Nicholas J
Bilton, Diana
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Improvements in management of cystic fibrosis (CF) through specialist centres in the UK have been associated with a step-change in life expectancy. With increasing numbers of adult patients there is a need to review health care provision to ensure it is sufficient to meet future needs. We used UK CF Registry data to project the number of patients aged 16–17 and 18 and older up to 2030, and numbers therefore requiring specialist adult CF care. Survival modelling was used to estimate age-specific mortality rates. New-diagnosis rates were estimated using diagnoses observed in the Registry and national population figures. Uncertainty in projections was captured through 95% prediction intervals (PI). The number of adults (aged 18 and older) is expected to increase by 28% from 6,225 in 2017 to 7,988 in 2030 (95% PI 7,803–8,169), assuming current mortality rates. If mortality rates improve at the rate seen over recent years, the projected number increases to 8,579 (95% PI 8,386–8,764). The age distribution is also expected to change, with 36% of CF adults being over 40 in 2030, versus 21% in 2017. There is an urgent requirement to review adult CF health care provision, due to both increasing numbers and the changing care needs of an older population.
Date Issued
2020-06-30
Date Acceptance
2020-06-01
Citation
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS, 2020, 10 (1), pp.1-8
ISSN
2045-2322
Publisher
NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
Start Page
1
End Page
8
Journal / Book Title
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
Volume
10
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2020. Tis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or
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Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. Te images or other third party material in this
article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the
material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not
permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from
the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or
format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the
Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. Te images or other third party material in this
article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the
material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not
permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from
the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
License URL
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000548354200002&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Subjects
Science & Technology
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Science & Technology - Other Topics
SURVIVAL
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2020-06-30