Sorting out assortativity: when can we assess the contributions of different population groups to epidemic transmission?
File(s)journal.pone.0313037.pdf (1.62 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Geismar, Cyril
White, Peter J
Cori, Anne
Jombart, Thibaut
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Characterising the transmission dynamics between various population groups is critical for implementing effective outbreak control measures whilst minimising financial costs and societal disruption. While recent technological and methodological advances have made individual-level transmission chain data increasingly available, it remains unclear how effectively this data can inform group-level transmission patterns, particularly in small, rapidly saturating outbreak settings. We introduce a novel framework that leverages transmission chain data to estimate group transmission assortativity; this quantifies the extent to which individuals transmit within their own group compared to others. Through extensive simulations mimicking nosocomial outbreaks, we assessed the conditions under which our estimator performs effectively and established guidelines for minimal data requirements in small outbreak settings where saturation may occur rapidly. Notably, we demonstrate that detecting and quantifying transmission assortativity is most reliable when at least 30 cases have been observed in each group, before reaching their respective epidemic peaks.
Editor(s)
Rodriguez, Pablo Martin
Date Issued
2024-12-02
Date Acceptance
2024-10-14
Citation
PLoS One, 2024, 19 (12)
ISSN
1932-6203
Publisher
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Journal / Book Title
PLoS One
Volume
19
Issue
12
Copyright Statement
© 2024 Geismar et al. This is an open
access article distributed under the terms of the
Creative Commons Attribution License, which
permits unrestricted use, distribution, and
reproduction in any medium, provided the original
author and source are credited.
access article distributed under the terms of the
Creative Commons Attribution License, which
permits unrestricted use, distribution, and
reproduction in any medium, provided the original
author and source are credited.
License URL
Identifier
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0313037
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
e0313037
Date Publish Online
2024-12-02