A new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal
File(s)
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
To understand how global warming can be kept well below 2 degrees Celsius and even 1.5 degrees Celsius, climate policy uses scenarios that describe how society could reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. However, current scenarios have a key weakness: they typically focus on reaching specific climate goals in 2100. This choice may encourage risky pathways that delay action, reach higher-than-acceptable mid-century warming, and rely on net removal of carbon dioxide thereafter to undo their initial shortfall in reductions of emissions. Here we draw on insights from physical science to propose a scenario framework that focuses on capping global warming at a specific maximum level with either temperature stabilization or reversal thereafter. The ambition of climate action until carbon neutrality determines peak warming, and can be followed by a variety of long-term states with different sustainability implications. The approach proposed here closely mirrors the intentions of the United Nations Paris Agreement, and makes questions of intergenerational equity into explicit design choices.
Date Issued
2019-09-19
Date Acceptance
2019-06-24
Citation
Nature, 2019, 573 (7774), pp.357-363
ISSN
0028-0836
Publisher
Nature Research
Start Page
357
End Page
363
Journal / Book Title
Nature
Volume
573
Issue
7774
Copyright Statement
© 2019, Springer Nature.
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000486647800038&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Subjects
Science & Technology
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Science & Technology - Other Topics
CLIMATE-CHANGE
CO2 EMISSIONS
CUMULATIVE CARBON
AIR-POLLUTION
FRAMEWORK
MITIGATION
REMOVAL
FUTURE
ENERGY
MODEL
Publication Status
Published