Communicating uncertainty in epidemic models
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Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
While mathematical models of disease transmission are widely used to inform public health decision-makers globally, the uncertainty inherent in results are often poorly communicated. We outline some potential sources of uncertainty in epidemic models, present traditional methods used to illustrate uncertainty and discuss alternative presentation formats used by modelling groups throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Then, by drawing on the experience of our own recent modelling, we seek to contribute to the ongoing discussion of how to improve upon traditional methods used to visualise uncertainty by providing a suggestion of how this can be presented in a clear and simple manner.
Date Issued
2021-12
Date Acceptance
2021-11-01
Citation
Epidemics: the journal of infectious disease dynamics, 2021, 37, pp.1-6
ISSN
1755-4365
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
1
End Page
6
Journal / Book Title
Epidemics: the journal of infectious disease dynamics
Volume
37
Copyright Statement
© 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
License URL
Sponsor
Medical Research Council (MRC)
National Institute for Health Research
Identifier
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436521000669?via%3Dihub
Grant Number
MR/R015600/1
NIHR200908
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Infectious Diseases
Transmission modelling
COVID-19
Communicating uncertainty
Decision-making
Data visualisation
COVID-19
Communicating uncertainty
Data visualisation
Decision-making
Transmission modelling
1103 Clinical Sciences
1117 Public Health and Health Services
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2021-11-02