Clinical prediction models in epidemiological studies: lessons from the application of QRISK3 to UK biobank data
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Published version
Author(s)
Parsons, Ruth E
Colopy, Glen Wright
Clifton, David A
Clifton, Lei
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
<jats:p>Statistical models for clinical risk prediction are often derived using data from primary care databases; however, they are frequently used outside of clinical settings. The use of prediction models in epidemiological studies without external validation may lead to inaccurate results. We use the example of applying the QRISK3 model to data from the United Kingdom (UK) Biobank study to illustrate the challenges and provide suggestions for future authors. The QRISK3 model is recommended by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) as a tool to aid cardiovascular risk prediction in English and Welsh primary care patients aged between 40 and 74. QRISK3 has not been externally validated for use in studies where data is collected for more general scientific purposes, including the UK Biobank study. This lack of external validation is important as the QRISK3 scores of participants in UK Biobank have been used and reported in several publications. This paper outlines: (i) how various publications have used QRISK3 on UK Biobank data and (ii) the ways that the lack of external validation may affect the conclusions from these publications. We then propose potential solutions for addressing these challenges; for example, model recalibration and considering alternative models, for the application of traditional statistical models such as QRISK3, in cohorts without external validation.</jats:p>
Date Issued
2022-02-08
Date Acceptance
2022-01-27
Citation
Journal of Data Science, 2022, 20 (1), pp.1-13
ISSN
1680-743X
Publisher
School of Statistics, Renmin University of China
Start Page
1
End Page
13
Journal / Book Title
Journal of Data Science
Volume
20
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
© 2022 The Author(s). Published by the School of Statistics and the Center for Applied Statistics, Renmin University of China.
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Open access article under the CC BY license.
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Open access article under the CC BY license.
License URL
Identifier
https://jds-online.org/journal/JDS/article/1268/info
Subjects
0104 Statistics
0801 Artificial Intelligence and Image Processing
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2022-02-08