Adjustable network reconstruction with applications to CDS exposures
File(s)JMVA_2017_473_GV.pdf (849.79 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Veraart, Luitgard Anna Maria
Gandy, A
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
This paper is concerned with reconstructing weighted directed networks from the total in- and out-weight of each node. This problem arises for example in the analysis of systemic risk of partially observed financial networks. Typically a wide range of networks is consistent with this partial information. We develop an empirical Bayesian methodology that can be adjusted such that the resulting networks are consistent with the observations and satisfy certain desired global topological properties such as a given mean density, extending the approach by Gandy and Veraart (2017). Furthermore we propose a new fitness-based model within this framework. We provide a case study based on a data set consisting of 89 fully observed financial networks of credit default swap exposures. We reconstruct those networks based on only partial information using the newly proposed as well as existing methods. To assess the quality of the reconstruction, we use a wide range of criteria, including measures on how well the degree distribution can be captured and higher order measures of systemic risk. We find that the empirical Bayesian approach performs best.
Date Issued
2019-07-01
Date Acceptance
2018-08-21
Citation
Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 2019, 172, pp.193-209
ISSN
0047-259X
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
193
End Page
209
Journal / Book Title
Journal of Multivariate Analysis
Volume
172
Copyright Statement
© 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This manuscript is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.
Subjects
Science & Technology
Physical Sciences
Statistics & Probability
Mathematics
Bayesian methods
Calibration
Matrix balancing
Random graphs
Systemic risk
SYSTEMIC RISK
Statistics & Probability
0104 Statistics
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2018-08-28