State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Report
Abstract
As of 1st June 2020, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported 104,232 confirmed or probable COVID-19-related deaths in the US. This was more than twice the number of deaths reported in the next most severely impacted country. We jointly model the US epidemic at the state-level, using publicly available deathdata within a Bayesian hierarchical semi-mechanistic framework. For each state, we estimate the number of individuals that have been infected, the number of individuals that are currently infectious and the time-varying reproduction number (the average number of secondary infections caused by an infected person). We use changes in mobility to capture the impact that non-pharmaceutical interventions and other behaviour changes have on therate of transmission of SARS-CoV-2. We estimate thatRtwas only below one in 23 states on 1st June. We also estimate that 3.7% [3.4%-4.0%] of the total population of the US had been infected, with wide variation between states, and approximately 0.01% of the population was infectious. We demonstrate good 3 week model forecasts of deaths with low error and good coverage of our credible intervals.
Date Issued
2020-12-03
Date Acceptance
2020-10-15
Citation
Nature Communications, 2020, 11 (6189), pp.1-9
ISSN
2041-1723
Publisher
Nature Research
Start Page
1
End Page
9
Journal / Book Title
Nature Communications
Volume
11
Issue
6189
Sponsor
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Identifier
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-05-21-COVID19-Report-23.pdf
Grant Number
MR/R015600/1
Subjects
COVID19
COVID-19
Coronavirus
United States
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2020-12-03