Indicators of climate risk in the UK at different levels of warming
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Arnell, Nigel W
Freeman, Anna
Kay, Alison L
Rudd, Alison C
Lowe, Jason A
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Assessments of the impacts of climate change are typically made using climate scenarios based on assumptions about future emissions of greenhouse gases, but policymakers and climate risk communicators are increasingly asking for information on impacts at different levels of warming. This paper provides this information for a set of indicators of climate risks in the UK for levels of warming up to 4 °C above pre-industrial levels. The results show substantial increases in climate risks at 2 °C, which is often inferred in the media to be a ‘safe’ level of climate change. In a 2 °C world, the chance of a heatwave is doubled, and the frequency of heat stress affecting people, crops and animals can be increased by a factor of five. Cooling degree days more than double, wildfire danger can increase by 40%–70%, the frequency of agricultural and water resources droughts doubles in England, and flood frequency in Wales increases by 50%. At 4 °C the increases in risk are considerably greater: heatwaves occur in virtually every year. The frequency of cold weather extremes reduces, but is not eliminated, with increasing warming. The rate of change in an indicator with warming varies across the UK. For temperature-based indicators this reflects variability in current climate, but for rainfall-based indicators reflects variations in the change in climate. Most indicators show a generally linear increase in risk with level of warming (although the change in risk from now is around 2.4 times higher in a 4 °C world than a 2 °C world because of warming experienced so far). However, some indicators—particularly relating to heat extremes—show a highly non-linear increase with level of warming. The range in change in indicator at a given level of warming is primarily caused by uncertainty in the estimated regional response of to increasing forcing.
Date Issued
2021-09-01
Date Acceptance
2021-09-08
Citation
Environmental Research Communications, 2021, 3 (9)
ISSN
2515-7620
Publisher
IOP Publishing
Journal / Book Title
Environmental Research Communications
Volume
3
Issue
9
Copyright Statement
© 2021 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 licence. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.
License URL
Identifier
https://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000700887500001&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=a2bf6146997ec60c407a63945d4e92bb
Subjects
2 degree world
4 degree world
Agricultural impacts
Drought
DROUGHT
Environmental Sciences
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
Flood
Heat extremes
IMPACTS
INDEXES
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
PRECIPITATION
Science & Technology
UNCERTAINTY
WEATHER
Wildfire
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
095005
Date Publish Online
2021-09-20