A clinical prediction model to identify patients at high risk of hemodynamic instability in the pediatric intensive care unit.
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Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Early recognition and timely intervention are critical steps for the successful management of shock. The objective of this study was to develop a model to predict requirement for hemodynamic intervention in the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU); thus, clinicians can direct their care to patients likely to benefit from interventions to prevent further deterioration. METHODS: The model proposed in this study was trained on a retrospective cohort of all patients admitted to a tertiary PICU at a single center in the United States, and validated on another retrospective cohort of all patients admitted to the PICU at a single center in the United Kingdom. The PICU clinical information system database (Intellivue Clinical Information Portfolio, Philips, UK) was interrogated to collect physiological and laboratory data. The model was trained using a variant of AdaBoost, which learned a set of low-dimensional classifiers, each of which was age adjusted. RESULTS: A total of 7052 patients admitted to the US PICU was used for training the model, and a total of 970 patients admitted to the UK PICU was used for validation. On the training/validation datasets, the model showed better prediction of hemodynamic intervention (area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) = 0.81/0.81) than systolic blood pressure-based (AUCROC = 0.58/0.67) or shock index-based (AUCROC = 0.63/0.65) models. Both of these models were age adjusted using the same classifier. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed model reliably predicted the need for hemodynamic intervention in PICU patients and provides better classification performance when compared to systolic blood pressure-based or shock index-based models alone. This model could readily be built into a clinical information system to identify patients at risk of hemodynamic instability.
Date Issued
2017-11-20
Date Acceptance
2017-10-26
Citation
Critical Care, 2017, 21 (1)
ISSN
1364-8535
Publisher
BioMed Central
Journal / Book Title
Critical Care
Volume
21
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s). 2017 Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0
International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and
reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to
the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver
(http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.
International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and
reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to
the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver
(http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.
License URL
Identifier
PII: 10.1186/s13054-017-1874-z
Subjects
Age-dependent features
Hemodynamic instability
Pediatric intensive care unit
Predictive model
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
282