Preserving privacy whilst maintaining robust epidemiological predictions
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Werkman, M
Tildesley, MJ
Brooks-Pollock, E
Keeling, MJ
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Mathematical models are invaluable tools for quantifying potential epidemics and devising optimal control strategies in case of an outbreak. State-of-the-art models increasingly require detailed individual farm-based and sensitive data, which may not be available due to either lack of capacity for data collection or privacy concerns. However, in many situations, aggregated data are available for use. In this study, we systematically investigate the accuracy of predictions made by mathematical models initialised with varying data aggregations, using the UK 2001 Foot-and-Mouth Disease Epidemic as a case study. We consider the scenario when the only data available are aggregated into spatial grid cells, and develop a metapopulation model where individual farms in a single subpopulation are assumed to behave uniformly and transmit randomly. We also adapt this standard metapopulation model to capture heterogeneity in farm size and composition, using farm census data. Our results show that homogeneous models based on aggregated data overestimate final epidemic size but can perform well for predicting spatial spread. Recognising heterogeneity in farm sizes improves predictions of the final epidemic size, identifying risk areas, determining the likelihood of epidemic take-off and identifying the optimal control strategy. In conclusion, in cases where individual farm-based data are not available, models can still generate meaningful predictions, although care must be taken in their interpretation and use.
Date Issued
2016-10-13
Date Acceptance
2016-10-12
Citation
Epidemics, 2016, 17, pp.35-41
ISSN
1755-4365
Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
Start Page
35
End Page
41
Journal / Book Title
Epidemics
Volume
17
Copyright Statement
© 2016 Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000392948300005&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Infectious Diseases
Metapopulation
Simulations
Stochastic model
Spatial aggregation
MOUTH-DISEASE
GREAT-BRITAIN
METAPOPULATION MODEL
FOOT
SPREAD
DYNAMICS
STRATEGIES
MOVEMENTS
IMPACT
UK
Publication Status
Published