Decoupling framework for large-scale energy systems simultaneously addressing carbon emissions and energy flow relationships through sector units: a case study on uncertainty in China's carbon emission targets
File(s)manuscrpit for CACE (modelling) - v1.2.docx (1.02 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Li, Chenxi
Shah, Nilay
Li, Zheng
Liu, Pei
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The energy system requires meticulous planning to achieve low-carbon development goals cost-effectively. However, optimizing large-scale energy systems with high spatial-temporal resolution and a rich variety of technologies has always been a challenge due to limited computational resources. Therefore, this study proposes a soft-linkage framework to deconstruct large-scale energy system optimization models based on sectors while ensuring the total carbon emission limit and the electricity supply-demand balance. Using China's energy system as a case study, the impact of uncertainty on emission reduction targets is analyzed. A long-term emission target curve is only described by the total carbon budget and its temporal distribution. Results show that different carbon budget time series can lead to total transition cost variations of up to nearly 100 trillion yuan. Moreover, although a lower carbon budget would increase the total cumulative transition cost quadratically, excessively high carbon budgets raise national natural gas demand, threatening energy security.
Date Issued
2024-12
Date Acceptance
2024-08-19
Citation
Computers and Chemical Engineering, 2024, 191
ISSN
0098-1354
Publisher
Elsevier
Journal / Book Title
Computers and Chemical Engineering
Volume
191
Copyright Statement
Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Ltd. This is the author’s accepted manuscript made available under a CC-BY licence in accordance with Imperial’s Research Publications Open Access policy (www.imperial.ac.uk/oa-policy)
License URL
Identifier
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.compchemeng.2024.108840
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
108840
Date Publish Online
2024-08-22