Enhancing epidemic forecast usability for policymakers: a global mixed-methods study
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic exposed critical gaps in the generation, interpretation, and use of epidemic forecasts for public health decision-making. We conducted a global mixed-methods study combining an online survey (n = 143, from 46 countries across all World Bank income groups) with 13 semi-structured interviews to examine how epidemic forecasts were perceived, used, and communicated by stakeholders involved in COVID-19 policy dialogues. Survey responses were analysed descriptively, stratified by country income group, while interview transcripts were analysed thematically using the Framework Method. Forecasts informed policy questions ranging from epidemic size estimation to intervention planning, with the projected impact of interventions (65%), epidemic peak (64%), and prevalence (62%) being the most frequently communicated metrics. Preferred formats varied by setting: 72% of high-income country (HIC) respondents valued explicit uncertainty presentation, compared with 34% in lower-middle-income countries (LMICs) and 23% in low-income countries (LICs). Barriers to forecast use were most pronounced in lower-income settings, where 47% of LIC and LMIC respondents reported that colleagues did not understand the modelling methodology, compared with 3% in HICs. Qualitative data highlighted that forecast credibility depended on interpersonal trust, institutional relationships, and contextual relevance rather than statistical sophistication alone. Findings should be interpreted in light of potential recall and selection biases inherent in retrospective, convenience-sampled designs. Strengthening forecast impact will require modular, user-oriented tools, embedding modellers within response teams, co-developing decision-relevant metrics, and sustained investment in foundational health information systems, particularly in resource-constrained settings.
Editor(s)
Ye, Pengpeng
Date Issued
2026-06-04
Date Acceptance
2026-05-04
Citation
PLOS Global Public Health, 2026, 6 (6), pp.e0006519-e0006519
ISSN
2767-3375
Publisher
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Journal / Book Title
PLOS Global Public Health
Volume
6
Issue
6
Copyright Statement
© 2026 Christen et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
License URL
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/42241454
PII: PGPH-D-25-02355
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
United States
Article Number
e0006519
Date Publish Online
2026-06-04