Improving disaggregation models of malaria incidence by ensembling non-linear models of prevalence
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Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Maps of disease burden are a core tool needed for the control and elimination of malaria. Reliable routine surveillance data of malaria incidence, typically aggregated to administrative units, is becoming more widely available. Disaggregation regression is an important model framework for estimating high resolution risk maps from aggregated data. However, the aggregation of incidence over large, heterogeneous areas means that these data are underpowered for estimating complex, non-linear models. In contrast, prevalence point-surveys are directly linked to local environmental conditions but are not common in many areas of the world. Here, we train multiple non-linear, machine learning models on Plasmodium falciparum prevalence point-surveys. We then ensemble the predictions from these machine learning models with a disaggregation regression model that uses aggregated malaria incidences as response data. We find that using a disaggregation regression model to combine predictions from machine learning models improves model accuracy relative to a baseline model.
Date Issued
2022-06
Date Acceptance
2020-06-18
Citation
Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology, 2022, 41, pp.1-12
ISSN
1877-5845
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Start Page
1
End Page
12
Journal / Book Title
Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
Volume
41
Copyright Statement
© 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
License URL
Identifier
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.sste.2020.100357
Subjects
0707 Veterinary Sciences
1117 Public Health and Health Services
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
100357
Date Publish Online
2020-07-04