Feasibility of carbon dioxide storage resource use within climate change mitigation scenarios for the United States
Author(s)
Zhang, Yuting
Jackson, Christopher
Darraj, Nihal
Krevor, Samuel
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
To progress decarbonization in the United States, numerous techno-economic models that project CO2 storage deployment at annual injection rates of 0.3–1.7 Gt year–1 by 2050 have been built. However, these models do not consider many geological, technical, or socio-economic factors that could impede the growth of geological storage resource use, and there is uncertainty about the feasibility of the resulting projections. Here, we evaluate storage scenarios across four major modeling efforts. We apply a growth modeling framework using logistic curves to analyze the feasibility of growth trajectories under constraints imposed by the associated storage resource availability. We show that storage resources are abundant, and resources of the Gulf Coast alone would be sufficient to meet national demand were it not for transport limitations. On the contrary, deployment trajectories require sustained average annual (exponential) growth at rates of >10% nationally for two of the three reports and between 3% and 20% regionally across four storage hubs projected in both reports with regional resolution. These rates are high relative to historical rates of growth in analogous large scale energy infrastructure in the United States. Projections for California appear to be particularly infeasible. Future modeling efforts should be constrained to more realistic deployment trajectories, which could be done with simple constraints from the type of modeling framework presented here.
Date Issued
2023-09-26
Date Acceptance
2023-09-11
Citation
Environmental Science and Technology, 2023, 57 (40), pp.14938-14949
ISSN
0013-936X
Publisher
American Chemical Society
Start Page
14938
End Page
14949
Journal / Book Title
Environmental Science and Technology
Volume
57
Issue
40
Copyright Statement
© 2023 The Authors. Published by American Chemical Society. This publication is licensed under CC-BY 4.0 .
License URL
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37750675
Subjects
CAPTURE
climate change mitigation
CO2 storage
DIFFUSION
DYNAMICS
ENERGY
Engineering
Engineering, Environmental
Environmental Sciences
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
growth modeling
growthrates
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
MODEL
net zero
Science & Technology
storage resource requirement
TECHNOLOGIES
Technology
United States
WIND
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
United States
Date Publish Online
2023-09-26