Development, validation and application of a machine learning model to estimate salt consumption in 54 countries
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Published version
Author(s)
Guzman-Vilca, Wilmer Cristobal
Castillo-Cara, Manuel
Carrillo Larco, Rodrigo M
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Global targets to reduce salt intake have been proposed but their monitoring is challenged by the lack of population-based data on salt consumption. We developed a machine learning (ML) model to predict salt consumption at the population level based on simple predictors and applied this model to national surveys in 54 countries. We used 21 surveys with spot urine samples for the ML model derivation and validation; we developed a supervised ML regression model based on: sex, age, weight, height, systolic and diastolic blood pressure. We applied the ML model to 54 new surveys to quantify the mean salt consumption in the population. The pooled dataset in which we developed the ML model included 49,776 people. Overall, there were no substantial differences between the observed and ML-predicted mean salt intake (p<0.001). The pooled dataset where we applied the ML model included 166,677 people; the predicted mean salt consumption ranged from 6.8 g/day (95% CI: 6.8-6.8 g/day) in Eritrea to 10.0 g/day (95% CI: 9.9-10.0 g/day) in American Samoa. The countries with the highest predicted mean salt intake were in Western Pacific. The lowest predicted intake was found in Africa. The country-specific predicted mean salt intake was within reasonable difference from the best available evidence. A ML model based on readily available predictors estimated daily salt consumption with good accuracy. This model could be used to predict mean salt consumption in the general population where urine samples are not available.
Date Issued
2022-01-05
Date Acceptance
2021-12-15
Citation
eLife, 2022, 11, pp.1-38
ISSN
2050-084X
Publisher
eLife Sciences Publications Ltd
Start Page
1
End Page
38
Journal / Book Title
eLife
Volume
11
Copyright Statement
© 2022, Guzman-Vilca et al. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use and redistribution provided that the original author and source are credited.
License URL
Sponsor
Wellcome Trust
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34984979
PII: 72930
Grant Number
214185/Z/18/Z
Subjects
epidemiology
global health
human
medicine
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
England
Article Number
ARTN e72930
Date Publish Online
2022-01-25