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  4. Derivation and validation of a cardiovascular risk score for prediction of major acute cardiovascular events in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease; the importance of an elevated mean platelet volume
 
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Derivation and validation of a cardiovascular risk score for prediction of major acute cardiovascular events in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease; the importance of an elevated mean platelet volume
File(s)
DerivationAndValidationOfACardiovascular.pdf (602.36 KB)
Published version
Author(s)
Abeles, Robin D
Mullish, Benjamin H
Forlano, Roberta
Kimhofer, Torben
Adler, Maciej
more
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Background: Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease is a key cause of morbidity in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) but appropriate means to predict major acute cardiovascular events (MACE) are lacking. Aims: To design a bespoke cardiovascular risk score in NAFLD. Methods: A retrospective derivation (2008-2016, 356 patients) and a prospective validation (2016- 2017, 111 patients) NAFLD cohort study was performed. Clinical and biochemical data were recorded at enrolment and mean platelet volume (MPV), Qrisk2 and Framingham scores were recorded one year prior to MACE (Cardiovascular death, acute coronary syndrome, stroke, and transient ischaemic attack). Results: The derivation and validation cohorts were well matched with MACE prevalence 12.6% and 12% respectively. On univariate analysis, age, diabetes, advanced fibrosis, collagen proportionate area >5%, MPV and liver stiffness were associated with MACE. After multivariate analysis, age, diabetes and MPV remained independently predictive. The ‘NAFLD CV-risk score’ was generated using binary logistic regression: 85860.06*(Age) + 0.963*(MPV) + 0.26*(DM1) – 16.441 Diabetes mellitus: 1: present; 2: absent. (AUROC 0.84). A cut-off of -3.98 gave a Sensitivity 97%, Specificity 27%, PPV 16%, NPV 99%. An MPV alone of >10.05 gave a sensitivity 97%, specificity 59%, PPV 24% and NPV 97% (AUROC 0.83). Validation cohort AUROCs were comparable at 0.77 (NAFLD CV-risk) and 0.72 (MPV). In the full cohort, the NAFLD CV-risk score and MPV outperformed both Qrisk2 and Framingham scores. Conclusions: The NAFLD CV risk score and MPV accurately predict 1-year risk of MACE thereby allowing better identification of patients that require optimisation of their cardiovascular risk profile.
Date Issued
2019-04
Date Acceptance
2019-01-23
Citation
Alimentary Pharmacology and Therapeutics, 2019, 49 (8), pp.1077-1085
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/67225
DOI
https://www.dx.doi.org/10.1111/apt.15192
ISSN
0269-2813
Publisher
Wiley
Start Page
1077
End Page
1085
Journal / Book Title
Alimentary Pharmacology and Therapeutics
Volume
49
Issue
8
Copyright Statement
© 2019 The Authors. Alimentary Pharmacology & Therapeutics Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited ( https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ ).
Sponsor
Medical Research Council
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust- BRC Funding
European Association for the Study of Liver
Grant Number
MR/R00875/1
MR/R000875/1
RDA27
N/A
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Gastroenterology & Hepatology
Pharmacology & Pharmacy
NONDIABETIC PATIENTS
HEART-DISEASE
INSULIN
BURDEN
ASSOCIATION
MORTALITY
FIBROSIS
ATHEROSCLEROSIS
INFLAMMATION
STEATOSIS
1103 Clinical Sciences
1115 Pharmacology and Pharmaceutical Sciences
Gastroenterology & Hepatology
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2019-03-05
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