We combine state-of-the-art thermo-metallurgical welding process modeling with coupled diffusion-elastic–plastic phase field fracture simulations to predict the failure states of hydrogen transport pipelines. This enables quantitatively resolving residual stress states and the role of brittle, hard regions of the weld such as the heat affected zone (HAZ). Failure pressures can be efficiently quantified as a function of asset state (existing defects), materials and weld procedures adopted, and hydrogen purity. Importantly, simulations spanning numerous relevant conditions (defect size and orientations) are used to build Virtual Failure Assessment Diagrams (FADs), enabling a straightforward uptake of this mechanistic approach in fitness-for-service assessment. Model predictions are in very good agreement with FAD approaches from the standards but show that the latter are not conservative when resolving the heterogeneous nature of the weld microstructure. Appropriate, mechanistic FAD safety factors are established that account for the role of residual stresses and hard, brittle weld regions.