Differences in how interventions coupled with effective reproduction numbers account for marked variations in COVID-19 epidemic outcomes
File(s)XiaEtAL2020COVIDmbe-17-05-274.pdf (690.21 KB)
Published version
Author(s)
Xia, Fan
Xiao, Yanni
Liu, Peiyu
A. Cheke, Robert
Li, Xuanya
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The COVID-19 outbreak, designated a “pandemic” by the World Health Organization (WHO) on 11 March 2020, has spread worldwide rapidly. Each country implemented prevention and control strategies, mainly classified as SARS LCS (SARS-like containment strategy) or PAIN LMS (pandemic influenza-like mitigation strategy). The reasons for variation in each strategy’s efficacy in controlling COVID-19 epidemics were unclear and are investigated in this paper. On the basis of the daily number of confirmed local (imported) cases and onset-to-confirmation distributions for local cases, we initially estimated the daily number of local (imported) illness onsets by a deconvolution method for mainland China, South Korea, Japan and Spain, and then estimated the effective reproduction numbers Rt by using a Bayesian method for each of the four countries. China and South Korea adopted a strict SARS LCS, to completely block the spread via lockdown, strict travel restrictions and by detection and isolation of patients, which led to persistent declines in effective reproduction numbers. In contrast, Japan and Spain adopted a typical PAIN LMS to mitigate the spread via maintaining social distance, self-quarantine and isolation etc., which reduced the Rt values but with oscillations around 1. The finding suggests that governments may need to consider multiple factors such as quantities of medical resources, the likely extent of the public’s compliance to different intensities of intervention measures, and the economic situation to design the most appropriate policies to fight COVID-19 epidemics.
Date Issued
2020-07-27
Date Acceptance
2020-07-21
Citation
Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2020, 17 (5), pp.5085-5098
ISSN
1551-0018
Publisher
American Institute of Mathematical Sciences (AIMS)
Start Page
5085
End Page
5098
Journal / Book Title
Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering
Volume
17
Issue
5
Copyright Statement
© 2020 the Author(s), licensee AIMS Press. This
is an open access article distributed under the
terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)
is an open access article distributed under the
terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)
License URL
Identifier
http://www.aimspress.com/article/10.3934/mbe.2020274
Subjects
Bioinformatics
0102 Applied Mathematics
0903 Biomedical Engineering
0904 Chemical Engineering
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2020-07-27