Implications of states' dependence on carbon dioxide removal for achieving the Paris temperature goal
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Achieving the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal of limiting global warming well below 2°C while pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C requires rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and CO2 to be withdrawn from the atmosphere and safely stored. However, pathways consistent with the Paris long-term temperature goal span a wide range of emission reductions in coming years: the IPCC indicates 34–60% cuts in GHG emissions between 2019 and 2030. This range is a major source of policy uncertainty. A key determinant of the rate at which emissions must be reduced this decade is the extent to which CO2 removal (CDR) is relied on later to withdraw emissions from the atmosphere. Here, we evaluate the dependence on CDR of 71 states, primarily in their near and long-term climate strategies submitted to the UNFCCC by May 2024, and the associated risks. Our analysis finds substantial ambiguities in how states plan to meet their climate targets. A feature of this ambiguity is that states expect to rely heavily on novel and conventional CDR options to meet their climate goals, and in some cases, rely on removals delivered in other states’ territories. Pathways that overshoot 1.5°C and use CDR to remove emissions produced in excess of the 1.5°C-aligned carbon budget will result in more severe climate change impacts and higher risks of crossing planetary tipping points. Moreover, states’ disclosed reliance on CDR is highly exposed to risks to its delivery, and non-delivery of planned CDR would raise global temperatures further, worsening impacts of climate change. Our findings provide a basis for enhanced scrutiny of states’ targets. The risks associated with heavy reliance on CDR to meet climate goals indicate that states should prioritize pathways that minimize overshoot and the reliance on CDR to reach net-zero CO2 emissions.
Date Issued
2026-07-01
Date Acceptance
2025-06-26
Citation
Climate Policy, 2026, 26 (7), pp.1061-1076
ISSN
1469-3062
Publisher
Taylor and Francis Group
Start Page
1061
End Page
1076
Journal / Book Title
Climate Policy
Volume
26
Issue
7
Copyright Statement
© 2025 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. The terms on which this article has been published allow the posting of the Accepted Manuscript in a repository by the author(s) or with their consent.
License URL
Identifier
10.1080/14693062.2025.2528775
Subjects
carbon dioxide removal
climate change mitigation
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
Environmental Studies
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
LIMITS
Long-term low emission development strategies
Nationally determined contributions (NDCs)
Paris agreement
Public Administration
Science & Technology
Social Sciences
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2025-07-10