The epidemiology of Mayaro virus in the Americas: a systematic review and key parameter estimates for outbreak modelling
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Mayaro virus (MAYV) is an arbovirus that is endemic to tropical forests in Central and South America, particularly within the Amazon basin. In recent years, concern has increased regarding MAYV’s ability to invade urban areas and cause epidemics across the region. We conducted a systematic literature review to characterise the evolutionary history of MAYV, its transmission potential, and exposure patterns to the virus. We analysed data from the literature on MAYV infection to produce estimates of key epidemiological parameters, including the generation time and the basic reproduction number, R0. We also estimated the force-of-infection (FOI) in epidemic and endemic settings. Seventy-six publications met our inclusion criteria. Evidence of MAYV infection in humans, animals, or vectors was reported in 14 Latin American countries. Nine countries reported evidence of acute infection in humans confirmed by viral isolation or reverse transcription-PCR (RT-PCR). We identified at least five MAYV outbreaks. Seroprevalence from population based cross-sectional studies ranged from 21% to 72%. The estimated mean generation time of MAYV was 15.2 days (95% CrI: 11.7–19.8) with a standard deviation of 6.3 days (95% CrI: 4.2–9.5). The per-capita risk of MAYV infection (FOI) ranged between 0.01 and 0.05 per year. The mean R0 estimates ranged between 2.1 and 2.9 in the Amazon basin areas and between 1.1 and 1.3 in the regions outside of the Amazon basin. Although MAYV has been identified in urban vectors, there is not yet evidence of sustained urban transmission. MAYV’s enzootic cycle could become established in forested areas within cities similar to yellow fever virus.
Date Issued
2021-06-03
Date Acceptance
2021-04-27
Citation
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 2021, 15 (6)
ISSN
1935-2727
Publisher
Public Library of Science
Journal / Book Title
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
Volume
15
Issue
6
Copyright Statement
© 2021 Caicedo et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
License URL
Sponsor
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Wellcome Trust
Grant Number
MR/R024855/1
EP/V520354/1
MR/R015600/1
213494/Z/18/Z
Subjects
Tropical Medicine
06 Biological Sciences
11 Medical and Health Sciences
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
ARTN e0009418