Unraveling the drivers of MERS-CoV transmission.
File(s)PNAS-2016-Cauchemez-9081-6.pdf (1.01 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
With more than 1,700 laboratory-confirmed infections, Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) remains a significant threat for public health. However, the lack of detailed data on modes of transmission from the animal reservoir and between humans means that the drivers of MERS-CoV epidemics remain poorly characterized. Here, we develop a statistical framework to provide a comprehensive analysis of the transmission patterns underlying the 681 MERS-CoV cases detected in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) between January 2013 and July 2014. We assess how infections from the animal reservoir, the different levels of mixing, and heterogeneities in transmission have contributed to the buildup of MERS-CoV epidemics in KSA. We estimate that 12% [95% credible interval (CI): 9%, 15%] of cases were infected from the reservoir, the rest via human-to-human transmission in clusters (60%; CI: 57%, 63%), within (23%; CI: 20%, 27%), or between (5%; CI: 2%, 8%) regions. The reproduction number at the start of a cluster was 0.45 (CI: 0.33, 0.58) on average, but with large SD (0.53; CI: 0.35, 0.78). It was >1 in 12% (CI: 6%, 18%) of clusters but fell by approximately one-half (47% CI: 34%, 63%) its original value after 10 cases on average. The ongoing exposure of humans to MERS-CoV from the reservoir is of major concern, given the continued risk of substantial outbreaks in health care systems. The approach we present allows the study of infectious disease transmission when data linking cases to each other remain limited and uncertain.
Date Issued
2016-07-25
Date Acceptance
2016-06-14
Citation
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2016, 113 (32), pp.9081-9086
ISSN
1091-6490
Publisher
National Academy of Sciences
Start Page
9081
End Page
9086
Journal / Book Title
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume
113
Issue
32
Identifier
PII: 1519235113
Subjects
animal reservoir
epidemic dynamics
mathematical modeling
outbreaks
zoonotic virus
Publication Status
Published