The global impact of COVID-19 on childhood tuberculosis: analysis of notification data
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Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Background:
There is concern that the Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19) pandemic has damaged global childhood tuberculosis management. Quantifying changes in child tuberculosis notifications could support more targeted interventions to restore child tuberculosis services.
Methods:
Annual case notification data reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) by 215 countries were used to calculate annual notification counts for 2014-2020 stratified by age groups (0-4, 5-14 and 15+ years) and sex. We used time series modelling to predict notification counts for 2020, and calculated differences from observed 2020 notifications at WHO region level and country-level for the 30 high tuberculosis-burden countries. We assessed association between these differences and the Oxford Government Response Tracker, a measure of COVID-19 social impact.
Findings:
Before 2020, annual notification counts increased across all age groups and WHO regions. More males than females 0-4 years were notified in all years and WHO regions. In 2020, global notifications for children 0-4 years were 35.4% lower than predicted (95% prediction interval [PI] -30.3 to -39.9), compared to 27.7% lower (95% PI: -23.4 to -31.5) in children 5-14 years and 18.8% lower (95%PI; -15.4 to -21.9) in 15+ years. The difference between predicted and observed notifications for 2020 were greater in males (-30.9%; 95%PI: -24.8 to -36.1) than females (-24.5%; 95%PI: -18.1 to –29.9%). No association was seen between severity of COVID-19 restrictions and change in notifications.
Interpretation:
Our findings suggest that COVID-19 has substantially impacted child tuberculosis services with the youngest children most affected. Although children suffered fewer severe health consequences from COVID-19 infection, they have been disproportionately affected by the consequences of the pandemic on tuberculosis care. As countries rebuild health systems post-COVID-19, it is vital that childhood tuberculosis services are placed centrally within national strategic plans.
There is concern that the Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19) pandemic has damaged global childhood tuberculosis management. Quantifying changes in child tuberculosis notifications could support more targeted interventions to restore child tuberculosis services.
Methods:
Annual case notification data reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) by 215 countries were used to calculate annual notification counts for 2014-2020 stratified by age groups (0-4, 5-14 and 15+ years) and sex. We used time series modelling to predict notification counts for 2020, and calculated differences from observed 2020 notifications at WHO region level and country-level for the 30 high tuberculosis-burden countries. We assessed association between these differences and the Oxford Government Response Tracker, a measure of COVID-19 social impact.
Findings:
Before 2020, annual notification counts increased across all age groups and WHO regions. More males than females 0-4 years were notified in all years and WHO regions. In 2020, global notifications for children 0-4 years were 35.4% lower than predicted (95% prediction interval [PI] -30.3 to -39.9), compared to 27.7% lower (95% PI: -23.4 to -31.5) in children 5-14 years and 18.8% lower (95%PI; -15.4 to -21.9) in 15+ years. The difference between predicted and observed notifications for 2020 were greater in males (-30.9%; 95%PI: -24.8 to -36.1) than females (-24.5%; 95%PI: -18.1 to –29.9%). No association was seen between severity of COVID-19 restrictions and change in notifications.
Interpretation:
Our findings suggest that COVID-19 has substantially impacted child tuberculosis services with the youngest children most affected. Although children suffered fewer severe health consequences from COVID-19 infection, they have been disproportionately affected by the consequences of the pandemic on tuberculosis care. As countries rebuild health systems post-COVID-19, it is vital that childhood tuberculosis services are placed centrally within national strategic plans.
Date Issued
2022-12
Date Acceptance
2022-09-16
Citation
The Lancet Global Health, 2022, 10 (12), pp.e1774-e1781
ISSN
2214-109X
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
e1774
End Page
e1781
Journal / Book Title
The Lancet Global Health
Volume
10
Issue
12
Copyright Statement
© 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
License URL
Identifier
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214109X22004144?via%3Dihub
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
CHILDREN
Child
Adult
Humans
Female
Male
Infant, Newborn
Infant
Child, Preschool
Adolescent
COVID-19
Pandemics
Tuberculosis
Family
Time Factors
Humans
Tuberculosis
Family
Time Factors
Adolescent
Adult
Child
Child, Preschool
Infant
Infant, Newborn
Female
Male
Pandemics
COVID-19
0605 Microbiology
1117 Public Health and Health Services
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2022-11-16