The short-term impact of a malaria elimination initiative in Southern Mozambique: Application of the synthetic control method to routine surveillance data
File(s)
Author(s)
Thomas, Ranjeeta
Cirera, Laia
Brew, Joe
Saute, Francisco
Sicuri, Elisa
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
In public health epidemiology, quasi-experimental methods are widely used to estimate the causal impacts of interventions. In this paper, we demonstrate the contribution the synthetic control method (SCM) can make in evaluating public health interventions, when routine surveillance data are available and the validity of other quasi-experimental approaches may be in question. In our application, we evaluate the short-term effects of a large-scale Mass Drug Administration (MDA) based malaria elimination initiative in Southern Mozambique. We apply the SCM to district level weekly malaria incidence data and compare the observed reduction in age group specific malaria incidence. Between August 2015 and April 2017, a total of 13,322 (78%) cases of malaria were averted relative to the synthetic control. During the peak malaria seasons, the elimination initiative resulted in an 87% reduction in Year 1 (December 2015–April 2016), and 79% reduction in Year 2 (December 2016–April 2017). Comparison with an interrupted time series approach shows the SCM accounts for pre-intervention trends in the data and post-intervention weather events influencing malaria cases. We conclude MDA brought about a drastic reduction in malaria burden and can be a useful addition to existing (or new) vector control strategies and tools in accelerating towards elimination.
Date Issued
2021-09-01
Date Acceptance
2021-05-20
Citation
Health Economics, 2021, 30 (9), pp.2168-2184
ISSN
1057-9230
Publisher
John Wiley and Sons
Start Page
2168
End Page
2184
Journal / Book Title
Health Economics
Volume
30
Issue
9
Copyright Statement
© 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is the peer reviewed version of the following article, which has been published in final form at https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/hec.4367. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions.
Identifier
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/hec.4367
Subjects
Social Sciences
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Economics
Health Care Sciences & Services
Health Policy & Services
Business & Economics
malaria elimination
Mozambique
surveillance data
synthetic control method
quasi-experimental evaluation
INTERVENTIONS
TRANSMISSION
ZANZIBAR
PROVINCE
Mozambique
malaria elimination
surveillance data, synthetic control method, quasi-experimental evaluation
Health Policy & Services
1117 Public Health and Health Services
1402 Applied Economics
1403 Econometrics
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2021-06-08